I have read recently few analysis from both and sides, technicals and fundamentals too. Frankly speaking, I do not have a clue what is going to hapen in 2016! But honestly, tell me who on Earth has? I mean ok, people have views, but NO ONE KNOWS the future. So let me place here the best quote I have seen recently, which I read from my Heikin-Ashi mentor, Dan Valcu: "Be smart: Use charts for trend analysis, NOT for predictions!"
How wise he is! When you think you can predict price action, especially when you even draw arrows pointing here and there, marking "possible" scenarios you do two things: you get yourself biased and you lose your edge of being flexible in fllowing the always changing price action!
So do not predict, as you CAN NOT predict anything. Especially never say "I knew it" or "I told you so", as you fckn did not know it would happen, you were just guessing it as one scenario, or a possibility. So be humble, and try to say something like: "I gave this scenario a higher probability", "I made my proper size bet on it, because I had a credible signal", "I suggested to do that way, because the chart confirmed trend and price action".
Do you feel and understand the difference?
So I do not predict as I can not predict. What I can do is to check how it looks now, what are the important levels and what is changing, or what to care if changing.
As of 1/Jan/2016 the picture is:
- setup, but no strong momentum. Average lines still point down, however long term trend continuation requires a break below 1,05.
- Kijun Sen stays exactly at same level where we have the big long term , and also spot Kumo bottom (spot Senkou B): 1,1115! -> "1st reversal RED LINE"
- Kumo is getting thinner 26 weeks ahead, and Senkou B is down to 1,1330! This can be an ultimate Key reversal level in 2016! -> "2nd reversal RED LINE"
- Heikin-Ashi has been neutral in last two weeks, given haDelta/SMA3 still above zero line, maybe it has some minor bias
- Absolutely neutral , with tightenning Kumo ahead. Range: 1,0785 / 1,10+ tightenning to 1,0850 / 1,0965
- Heikin-Ashi has bias within the range
- EWO is neutral at zero level.
Summary: wide weekly range, tight daily range, possibly even tighter daily range: no trend momentum right now, is relatively low -> however this will lead to increasing tension in the market at some point. The only thing you have to do is: first to trade the reversal signals (if and when you have) at daily range boundaries, and second trade the final breakout!
This will be a very good practice not to predict, but to stay flexible and follow!