EURUSD - The level to watch this week, and the px action on top

Since we hv FED this week, we must burn into our minds what to watch from now. The inflection point is clear now: 1,3840. There is the future Kumo bottom, current 100 WMA, and there will be the trend line later this week. What else do we see now? ADX is coming lower, which means current trend is loosing a bit of momentum. DMI is also tighter, not so powerfu. Last weekend I also mentionned that on daily chart it EURUSD seemed a bit overbought and there is a chance for a top building ard/ below 1,4000. The most important to watch until Wednesday is the price action! We need to see first if bulls can get a higher high printed above 1,3950. If not, then second, we have to see if price trades into the Kumo, and starts to consolidate (Chikou Span move will be important info as well). Be careful if you see a first break attempt of 1,3840 before Wednesday, as the current Kumo is still thick, and trendline is also lower at mom. Bulls can have power to protect it first, but of course that kind of price action would be very informative. In this scenario on next spike we can get ready for short setup and bearish position building. The more components we have on our side, the better the risk reward will be for a short in case. Remember! It is not the level of opening itself what really matters, but the timing and the probability of being right.