Well at the end of each month I tend to look at monthly closes to gauge perspective on where a currency pair may head in the upcoming month. I previously posted analysis showing the huge absorbtion/accumulation of short sellers and buyers alike. What the monthly chart shows is that sellers have gotten weaker, and weaker, and weaker as each month passes. Evident by the upper wicks, sellers pounce in force only to be stopped in their tracks at the 1.04 Support, followed by strong buying pressure which plows through sellers evident by the bodies and lack wicks in the previous months candle. So all in all, I expect the Euro/Dollar to break above 1.14 Resistance handle.
Can we see some short term pullback before a break? Of course we can, anything is possible. This business is about probabilities and the probability of success. Price action to me personally says probability is to the upside.
All the best, happy trading.
Note: Disregard the horizontal lines above 1.22 (They are merely areas I intend to enter shorts for a multi-month short trade.