EURUSD - On a thin rope

The EURUSD is now walking on a thin rope. My technical analysis tells me that it is still a high probability to see a bounce from this area. It is true that fundamentals are signaling bearish . So careful careful careful!! I believe that only a break above the "holy" 1.3730 would trigger a bigger rally, while a drop bellow the 200 EMA would clearly be a bad signal for the European single currency.