EURUSD - Close CT longs, get ready to re-enter shorts in case

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
174 2 2
There are some warning signals here which makes me reconsider the counter trend long idea. In fact I stay neutral now and watch. I show you why.

Daily: Slow Stoch did not even reach overbought level and turning down. MACD is still up, so at mom we don't know if it turns down at all, or not, and in case it goes down will it print a lower low or not? ADX is dropping, DMI             has no useful information, maybe it will stuck in a range, who knows? For five days it couldn't cross above key resistance. It looks like chance for further gains is getting limited.
Lower key level is Kijun Sen at 1,2743. If price breaks back below that, that will mean a strong Kijun Sen cross, which may be followed by a strong bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross too. Again, even in this case we don't know how deep it can move.

4 Hrs: The ellipses show you the "problems", which make me think it was enough for being long and it was/is time to cut minimum half of counter trend longs.
Key levels are obvious. 1,2830-35 was resisted four times. Lower key support might be attacked too. As you see Senkou B (Future Kumo bottom) and horizontal support stay together. This is the short term equilibrium price at 1,2745. Since 100 WMA and 4 Hrs bullish trend line are still lower, the first sell may be still bought, making some sideaway action for 1-2 more days. If it can not make a higher high again from there, it will likely break down.
Chikou Span lost open space, hit price candles, ADX totally down and DMI             crossing back to bearish: Momentum lost.
Slow Stoch is turning down.

Strategy: I stay on the sideline now. 1,2745 - 1,2830 may be a nice range, but no one is able to catch precisely the bottoms and tops. I do not really like range trading. Until I see the next possible direction, I do not really touch it, but train my mind to focus on the possible breakdown from now. You can never stay biased, we have to try objectively evaluate things and determine risk-rewards. Until I see something stronger here, I go to other playgrounds: AUDUSD             , GBPUSD             , EURNOK             mainly.
Kumowizard PRO
2 years ago
ECB corporate bond buying rumour denied by ECB, initial reaction EURUSD spike, but then giving all gains back. This is not bullish price action, this is still undecision, with still rather bearish still. Just watching still ...
Kumowizard PRO
2 years ago
The break happened. Any pull back to 1,2720-45 are now is a selling opportunity.
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