There was an important meeting today where some of the world's most influential central bank leaders gathered. Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank; Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England; Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan; and Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, were all in attendance. They discussed various topics, but the most significant takeaway was that Powell was hawkish, indicating that it is likely that interest rates will continue to rise, which could lead to increased demand for the US dollar. Ueda had a more dovish stance, mentioning that Japan's underlying inflation is below the target, but wage inflation is above 2%, creating a mixed message. Bailey stated that the UK economy has been more resilient than expected, and there is persistence in inflation, indicating a hawkish stance. Lagarde mentioned that there is still a long way to go in controlling inflation, which is also a hawkish comment.
Overall, the meeting was important because it provided insights into the thinking of the world's most influential central bank leaders. The hawkish comments from Powell, Bailey, and Lagarde could indicate that interest rates will continue to rise, while Ueda's comments suggest a more cautious approach. The markets will be watching closely for any further developments that could impact the currency and economic trends.
Another surprise for the market was the data on Crude Oil Stocks Change, which was expected to increase production from -3.831M to -1.757M, but instead, production decreased to -9.603M. This led to further appreciation in the price of oil.
Perspective on major currencies and commodities.
USD-BULLISH
EUR-BULLISH
GBP-BULLISH
CAD-NEURAL
JPY-BEARISH
AUD-BEARISH
NZD-BEARISH
CHF-NEUTRAL
XAU-BEARISH
USOIL-BULLISH
US STOCKS-NEUTRAL
Interest Rates Probabilities:
Bank of Canada - Hike - 55%
Bank of England - Hike - 63%
Bank of Japan - Hold - 87%
European Central Bank - Hike - 89%
Federal Reserve - Hike - 76%
Reserve Bank of Australia - Hold - 68%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Hold - 91%
Swiss National Bank - Hike - 66%
Overall, the meeting was important because it provided insights into the thinking of the world's most influential central bank leaders. The hawkish comments from Powell, Bailey, and Lagarde could indicate that interest rates will continue to rise, while Ueda's comments suggest a more cautious approach. The markets will be watching closely for any further developments that could impact the currency and economic trends.
Another surprise for the market was the data on Crude Oil Stocks Change, which was expected to increase production from -3.831M to -1.757M, but instead, production decreased to -9.603M. This led to further appreciation in the price of oil.
Perspective on major currencies and commodities.
USD-BULLISH
EUR-BULLISH
GBP-BULLISH
CAD-NEURAL
JPY-BEARISH
AUD-BEARISH
NZD-BEARISH
CHF-NEUTRAL
XAU-BEARISH
USOIL-BULLISH
US STOCKS-NEUTRAL
Interest Rates Probabilities:
Bank of Canada - Hike - 55%
Bank of England - Hike - 63%
Bank of Japan - Hold - 87%
European Central Bank - Hike - 89%
Federal Reserve - Hike - 76%
Reserve Bank of Australia - Hold - 68%
Reserve Bank of New Zealand - Hold - 91%
Swiss National Bank - Hike - 66%