We had negative data come from EZ industrial production, ZEW survey,Export, Import, Markit PMI, and Factory Order All of them is so bad, but EURUSD still hold above 1.2500
The answer I think is EURUSD fully pricing for negative data, and a bounce is an unavoidable result.
Moreover, I see fact that GE-US 10 year T-bond spread is move higher from the low, and because the strong correlation between GGE-US 10 year T-bond spread and EURUSD , I think EURUSD will bounce back to 1.3000
I still keep my LONG position of EURUSD to 1.3000, I will give up LONG EURUSD if price moves below 1.2700 where I will reload SHORT EURUSD .
Look at on the chart, to have a meaningful uptrend, EURUSD needs to come back (Green channel I show on the chart), and a break above 1.2850 key resistance.
OK, let the market moves.
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