IDEA 17: EUR/USD SHORT: a look at trendlines and MA's
Hi fellow traders. With HOT USD CPI and PPI numbers in the rear view mirror, the FOMC minutes from the January will be the highlight this week. It will provide more insight into their individual though processes.
However, I do not see any fundamental reason for the downtrend NOT to continue. As mentioned in IDEA 16, I am short at 1.0790 and price exceeded the two daily lows of 1.0795 by 3 pips before resuming the downtrend.
Long, medium and short term trend lines always give us a better idea of where price is heading next. For instance, on the medium term daily uptrend line, price is back above the line.
The short term hourly chart tells a different story. The uptrend line from 1.0722 connecting the hourly closes is now resistance underneath the line after it spiked down to 1.0694.
At this juncture, we'll need a clear break below 1.0761 to take price back to the lows.
While a break above 1.0805 will take us back to 1.0845 and beyond, I can't imagine why the major players would want to attempt that hurdle so close to the FOMC minutes.
The 7 and 10 D MA's are supporting price for now but both are below the longer term MA's.
I am of course not ignoring other indicators like RSI etc. but let's keep it simple for now.
Best of luck
However, I do not see any fundamental reason for the downtrend NOT to continue. As mentioned in IDEA 16, I am short at 1.0790 and price exceeded the two daily lows of 1.0795 by 3 pips before resuming the downtrend.
Long, medium and short term trend lines always give us a better idea of where price is heading next. For instance, on the medium term daily uptrend line, price is back above the line.
The short term hourly chart tells a different story. The uptrend line from 1.0722 connecting the hourly closes is now resistance underneath the line after it spiked down to 1.0694.
At this juncture, we'll need a clear break below 1.0761 to take price back to the lows.
While a break above 1.0805 will take us back to 1.0845 and beyond, I can't imagine why the major players would want to attempt that hurdle so close to the FOMC minutes.
The 7 and 10 D MA's are supporting price for now but both are below the longer term MA's.
I am of course not ignoring other indicators like RSI etc. but let's keep it simple for now.
Best of luck
Comment:
I did neglect to mention that while it is accepted practice to draw trend lines connecting either swing lows/highs or your preferred time frame low/high close levels, it is important to keep it consistent. NEVER force a line to suit a desired outcome.
Comment:
So sorry, the top right chart text should have been:
Bouncing up to the broken uptrend
line before reversing again. Also the
intersection of medium term downtrend
line and bottom of broken uptrend at 1.0789
Bad habit not to check screen real estate...
Bouncing up to the broken uptrend
line before reversing again. Also the
intersection of medium term downtrend
line and bottom of broken uptrend at 1.0789
Bad habit not to check screen real estate...