Request: EURUSD Short-term Analysis

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
2385 14 33
Thanks for your interaction mates.. The most requested instrument was the EURUSD             , two more are coming afterwards. Then i will try to add as many as i can :) .
So i will start by trying to analyze the technical position of the pair, defining the main technical key levels.

-We have been in a strong bearish trend that started in early May, however recently after testing 1.2500 the price has managed to break the first tier falling trend line , that usually hints a minor shift in behavior from strongly bearish to sideways-bearish
-The price has managed to pullback towards the previously broken swing low at 1.2858 and created a new swing high at 1.2886 as shown on chart, before heading lower again.
-The pullback took the shape of a minor rising channel or a continuation bearish flag pattern, and the price succeeded in the latest dip to break the support of that flag.
-However, the price found support at 1.2605 level, and is currently pulling back gradually higher.
-This overall behavior remains illustrative of a sideways to bearish bias for me.
- The price is testing the broken flag pattern now, so could find renewed downside pressures from here..The 50-days SMA is also near 1.2850 level, therefore, it might be a good area to scalp quick short trades among 1.2800-1.2850. targeting retest of levels near 1.2605 for now, a break below 1.2605 clears the way for the latest major swing low at 1.2500.
-Any extension of the bullish move should be limited below 1.3000 level, which is the main falling trend line for the overall bearish trend . A break with a daily closing above that resistance could have a bullish implication.

- Do not forget that trading is about probabilities, trades will definitely work some times, and definitely fail some times, so its all about how you manage it and execute it with a clear consistent method,, its all about keeping your profits bigger than your losses.

Hope you enjoyed it. :)

Best of Luck , join me at
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My best regards,
I teach my experience conclusions in 10+ trading strategies. PM me for details and cost.
Down the drain, back to the drawing board :-)
Thank You mates
Cheers. How about the long term? I am a Belgian guy, but I only trade on the NYSE. My account is in Euro's, and my broker charges me 2,6% a year if I hold a stock/fund for one year, because my equity in Euro's stays the same, but I go negative in USD. So, I am thinking about purchasing USD for the long haul. Any advice? Thanks in advance
:) buddy.. I hope if i can give u an advise. But i cant give any sort of investment advice. I am bearish the euro over the long term as well, and generally bullish the U.S. dollar.
gunne821 Technician
Thanks. Keep up the good work. I know you can't give advice, but when you went short on the S&P, I had exactly the same idea, and it's nice to have a much more experienced technician than I thinking the same thing. It gave me more courage to enter the trade, and I didn't regret it ;)
+1 Reply
If I may have advise:
A) change your broker for a cheaper one
B) change products to cover same idea. Maybe you could trade CFDs instead of cash stocks. With leverage you can have the same exposure, but you won't have cash negative USD exposure. Or trade futures if your acct. size allows you to. 2,6 % p.a. negative carry for a sinthetic eurusd short position is way too expensive.
gunne821 Kumowizard
It's the cheapest one around here, Kumowizard...I had an account with Ameritrade, but a couple of years ago, I had to close all positions, they didn't allow Belgian clients anymore...I don't like to use leverage, as I am kind of a defensive investor who likes to trade dividend stocks. Not the buy and hold type, but someone who tries to get as many shares as possible by trading. Thanks for the input.
Barabaszek gunne821
For big boys :-)
Great work, my appreciation.
+1 Reply
simple but amazing and perfect , thank you Technician.
+1 Reply
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