EURUSD: Potential uptrend continuation

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
EURUSD             has fired a potential uptrend continuation setup here on the daily chart .
As of today, both a downtrend signal time ran out (on Friday close to be precise), and the range expansion decline corresponding to the FOMC minutes release date is failing to validate the bearish momentum (this will be confirmed on close).
Since after May's close, this level will be a new 12 month level in the monthly uptrend, there's a high probability of seeing a rally emerge from here, and reach the target set by the monthly 'Time at mode' trend signal currently active.
Despite this flying in the face of the quarterl decline, (which has already hit its target though, but has time left to develop) I think odds are good enough to try a long trade here, using a rather tight stop.
If not in, go long at market, stop loss under 1.11798, and aim for 1.1770-1.2118.

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Comment: Market is quite choppy, close half and watch it. I don't want to risk big on any trade for a while. It seems like there is a retracement of the main trends going on for a while, which leads to chaotic price action, and not logical movement between correlated pairs.
I do like the idea of going long, so I won't close it 100% yet.
Trade closed: stop reached: Stop hit, if eurusd moves under the speed line the uptrend seems highly improbable to work.
Comment: Price broke monthly support, we might be seeing the start of a longer term downtrend here.

We could flip short with stops above 1.1220 with half risk allocation. Targets would be initially a test of the monthly support below, and eventually sub parity, if it resumes the quarterly/monthly decline but would have to close the month under my stop at first.
Comment: Might be time to reenter longs here, we can start with a wide stop loss to be safe.
Trade active: (wide as in 3x the daily ATR if you want to get involved)
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