As of today, both a downtrend signal time ran out (on Friday close to be precise), and the range expansion decline corresponding to the FOMC minutes release date is failing to validate the momentum (this will be confirmed on close).
Since after May's close, this level will be a new 12 month level in the monthly uptrend, there's a high probability of seeing a rally emerge from here, and reach the target set by the monthly 'Time at mode' trend signal currently active.
Despite this flying in the face of the quarterl decline, (which has already hit its target though, but has time left to develop) I think odds are good enough to try a long trade here, using a rather tight stop.
If not in, go long at market, stop loss under 1.11798, and aim for 1.1770-1.2118.
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We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
I do like the idea of going long, so I won't close it 100% yet.
We could flip short with stops above 1.1220 with half risk allocation. Targets would be initially a test of the monthly support below, and eventually sub parity, if it resumes the quarterly/monthly decline but would have to close the month under my stop at first.