FlowState

EUR/USD: Buy on weakness favored as valuation point north

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The pair has been stuck in a 100+ pips range ever since the spike in demand off Nov 28 lows. Market makers and range traders have been dominating for now, with 1.13 to the downside being the line drawn in the sand by value buyers. I say ‘value’ because at present, any Euros being exchanged nearby the 1.13 are definitely offered at a discount based on where the German vs US yield spread and the Italian premium trade at. The decoupling is too obvious to ignore, which makes buying on weakness a very viable strategy. Ever since the origin of the demand candle on Nov 28, the price has been achieving higher levels, while any attempts to transact offers for bids that meet the 1.1315/20 periphery are rejected in no time. Overall, this is a market that has written on the wall, buy me at discount prices for now.

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