From a weekly viewpoint, we are currently in a consolidation wave after a long impulse wave down. Not concerned much with the proper count as much as just that the previous wave down was truly an impulse wave. That much is clear.
Zooming in on this corrective wave, my analysis shows that it is unfolding in a complex double ABC-X-ABC wave pattern. Currently, we are in the B wave of the 2nd ABC with prices heading towards the bottom of the . Examining further this corrective wave structure reveals a possible fib relationship between the first ABC and the 2nd ABC , If/when prices complete the C leg of the 2nd ABC , it will end at/near the top of the channel and at a of both ABC zig-zags within the corrective structure. Further analysis also suggests a pattern developing pointing towards the top of the . There is also a pattern within this that could develop should prices follow through with the pattern completion. The would also complete at the top channel of the . Also, the top of the is at the . of the previous impulse wave down.
After analyzing what's going on from a big picture point of view, let's zoom in and see what is happening now and where the opportunity is to jump in to this market and make some pips. Currently, prices are very near completion of a missing the .886 BAT termination D point at 1.11230 by a few pips last week. I expect that this BAT will complete. BUT I will not suggest to play this as there is also a that is pending completion that I feel has more significance. Watch price action closely this week (could be as soon as today) and If prices head down strongly towards the 1.10600-1.10590 area to complete the , then it's a good indication this is very significant. patterns tend to complete with a strong move. A confluence of factors lie in wait down where the completes which support a move back up as per my long-term analysis as outlined above. They are:
1. the ends within a historically strong zone from 1.11000 - 1.10000
2. Of course, this zone is flanked by the two significant round numbers
3. the PRZ of the is supported by the 1.618 termination D point (1.10590), the 2.618 AB extension (1.10595) and the 3.14 BC projection (1.10383)
4. And of course, if you look left, this PRZ falls right near a previous support structure
5. it also terminates right near the bottom of the channel (see above)
CONCLUSION: Prices will extend down past the (thereby invalidating it) and into the PRZ of the and possibly even extend a little further past it reaching the bottom of the before bouncing up and starting the C leg of the current 2nd ABC of this corrective wave we are currently in. Longer term, the C leg completion will reach the top of the channel, completing the larger pattern, reaching the . of the previous impulse wave before commencing another strong impulse wave down to new lows.
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It was a risky trade and I am sure many people got burned,cuz of the gap when the market opened.I personally prefer to stay away from currency markets during big news events.
You put a nice effort dude thx.The only thing is....your nickname is very similar to EveythingFx=/ Some people who follow them might be confused at first=)Good luck and good trading!
Yeah, I know that his nickname and mine are too similar! But kinda too late to do anything about that. I just hope he doesn't mind. I didn't know about him when I chose my nick!
Fundamentally, as "Black Monday" plays out in Greece, today can be a very volatile and unpredictable day. If trading, keep your lots low and stops tight!