EURUSD - What if ECB doesn't deliver today? Then go long
What hapens if ECB "disappoints" mkts today? I don't think they would pull another magic rabbit right now out of their cilinder. Anyway, would you start another fight if there are crazy samurais already fighting with same weapon for you too? :-)
If investors expect too much - and looking at risky asset prices, stocks, periferia bonds, EURUSD, etc, I think they do - then with diappointment EURUSD shorts can become one of the major pain trades. Anyway, this is just a theory, an idea, so as usual, we'll see everything in time on technical basis. But to be focused, we have to do a summary and know the key levels.
Daily: Major trend is still bearish, but I have some feeling about loosing momentum. ADX dropped a lot,and as Price fails to break lower, mkt can not get a new momentum in selling. There is chance for a bullish wedge, and also some chance for a minor short term MACD positive divergence to develop.
Ichimoku averages slowly becoming flat line (this often attracts Price back to supports, so to Kijun Sen and/or to the Kumo. Also if Price can not break lower today, Chikou will hit the candles and then we could see further consolidation between 1,2500 - 1,2830.
Clearly the most important levels are 1,2470 on the lower and most importantly 1,2830 on the upper side! In between of course we have Tenkan Sen at 1,2603 and Kijun Sen in line with wedge top line ard 1,2660
4 Hrs: Bearish, but momentum will be gone if can not quickly break lower. Actually Slow Stoch turning up again, DMI lines closing in. Tenkan and Kijun got close to each other, still pointing down a bit, but as Price is close to both, on a spike these averages can quickly change into a weak bullish cross.
And now this is a perfect example of the power of multi time frame Ichimoku analyses: look at where do we have the 4 Hrs upper key level: 1,2601, at 100 WMA and Kumo top. This is exactly the level of daily Tenkan Sen, so this will be the real inflection point.
Strategies: A) you can frontrun the "ntg to be delivered" idea and buy now with stop at 1,2430.
B) Prudent trading is rather to buy 1,2535 break on 4 Hrs, later adding to longs at Kumo break above 1,2603.
As I have some problem with the daily bullish setup, I would trade only long on the bullish reversal, but not the short side. Simply better risk-reward IF the reversal hapens.
If investors expect too much - and looking at risky asset prices, stocks, periferia bonds, EURUSD, etc, I think they do - then with diappointment EURUSD shorts can become one of the major pain trades. Anyway, this is just a theory, an idea, so as usual, we'll see everything in time on technical basis. But to be focused, we have to do a summary and know the key levels.
Daily: Major trend is still bearish, but I have some feeling about loosing momentum. ADX dropped a lot,and as Price fails to break lower, mkt can not get a new momentum in selling. There is chance for a bullish wedge, and also some chance for a minor short term MACD positive divergence to develop.
Ichimoku averages slowly becoming flat line (this often attracts Price back to supports, so to Kijun Sen and/or to the Kumo. Also if Price can not break lower today, Chikou will hit the candles and then we could see further consolidation between 1,2500 - 1,2830.
Clearly the most important levels are 1,2470 on the lower and most importantly 1,2830 on the upper side! In between of course we have Tenkan Sen at 1,2603 and Kijun Sen in line with wedge top line ard 1,2660
4 Hrs: Bearish, but momentum will be gone if can not quickly break lower. Actually Slow Stoch turning up again, DMI lines closing in. Tenkan and Kijun got close to each other, still pointing down a bit, but as Price is close to both, on a spike these averages can quickly change into a weak bullish cross.
And now this is a perfect example of the power of multi time frame Ichimoku analyses: look at where do we have the 4 Hrs upper key level: 1,2601, at 100 WMA and Kumo top. This is exactly the level of daily Tenkan Sen, so this will be the real inflection point.
Strategies: A) you can frontrun the "ntg to be delivered" idea and buy now with stop at 1,2430.
B) Prudent trading is rather to buy 1,2535 break on 4 Hrs, later adding to longs at Kumo break above 1,2603.
As I have some problem with the daily bullish setup, I would trade only long on the bullish reversal, but not the short side. Simply better risk-reward IF the reversal hapens.