What I know surely:
- Consume Confidence will be positive because Retail sales + CB Leading Indicator + Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index were positive. But you can ignore this data, not important.
- GDP could be positive, there is a pickup of manufacturing ssector and consumer spending, I think GDP would retrace from 2.6% to 1.2% or 1.3% beat the forecast 1.1%.
- PCE price would be beat the forecast because CPI jumped to 1.5% last two week.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI surely will very positive because Durable Good Orders and Factory Order and Industry Production showed very positive last month, they always beat the forecast. This data is released on Thursday, no EZ data is released this day, so you could make a surprise attack E/U, LONG USdollar this day.
What I am not sure :
- FED decision on Wednesday
- NFP report on Friday
Despite all we know that FED will continue taper; they will reduce the QE3 by 10bln to 45bln. We saw the big move of USdollar last month when FED announced the reduction QE3 to 55lbn from 65lbn. The main reason was FED Statement was so hawkish; they implied the timeframe for first rate hike. I know traders will lift USdollar against all major after the decision, but the jump would not too much, about maximum 50pips. The main focus will be FED monetary Statement, if there is change in , it will trigger the selloff of all major against USdollar . However, I don’t hope too much, I don’t know what will they say,so don’t expect too much about big jump in USdollar in this event. I think traders would wait until NFP report to confirm what happen on Wednesday.
What about Non-Farm Payroll?. We can see the Initial Jobless Claim showed very well. It gradually falls down below 300k. Normally, to having a meaningful number of NFP, Jobless-Claim must remain below 325k. The 4 week average of Initial Jobless Claim is 317k, an ideal number for NFP report to beat the forecast.
Moreover, we know that:
Non-Farm Payroll = Total hiring – Total layoff.
I know surely that total layoff are accelerating falling down.
You can check here:
The job cut of Q1 is at the lowest level in nearly 20 years. So if the total layoff decreases, and the total hiring unchanged, most likely NFP report would pickup. Moreover, I cannot ignore ADP report, if ADP report on Wednesday is higher the forecast of NFP report, we can believe in good number of NFP report. ADP report show the net hiring in private sector, not count government sector, I don’t know government sector is net hiring or net layoff, but in this current level of US economy, I think government will not layoff more.
In the best scene:
- FED taper on Wednesday + positive ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday + positive NFP report on Friday : If you bet on this scene, you freely LONG USD from after Tuesday.
In the worst scene:
- FED taper and nothing new in FED Statement + positive ISM Manufacturing PMI + negative NFP report : If you bet on this scene, you freely SHORT USD from now until next week, no one wants to hold USdollar anymore.
So what do you think ?. This is the only two options. Most people believe in the first scene because US economy recently performs very well, and that belief is not wrong, but who knows what happens ???
I know a lot of Institutes (big traders) are holding massive of SHORT position of E/U, yes, I think they are not wrong, I also hold a SHORT position of E/U to 1.37 level too, but if market indeed dosen’t favour USdollar ,I will change my mind.
Please prepare your weapon before engaging the battle, very fierce. You must keep a cold head.
Good Luck. If you pricing correctly, you will get a lot a lot of profit.
Reason being is I am going to go the PUT option and I want an idea of when and at what price that I should make that trade???
I am only new at this Binary Options thing, so I am asking for an opinion.