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Recently, the strength of the dollar following the weakness of the yen has led to a decline in the euro. The surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank recently, along with dovish outlooks from the Fed, the Bank of England, and the ECB, suggests that major central banks may cut rates around June. It is anticipated that the euro may decline further than expected, with this week's key point being whether the US PCE price index will break its previous low.
- The US February PCE price index will be released on March 29.
- Fed Chair Powell's speech is scheduled for March 29.
- March 29 to April 1 is the Easter period.
Until the release of the PCE price index this week, there aren't any major issues. Therefore, movements in the yen, the timing of rate cuts by the ECB and the Fed, etc., will likely serve as the main sources of volatility. The euro currently shows a strong downward pressure on the chart, so it's important to determine whether it will rebound from the 1.07000 line or break below it.
In summary,
First, based on the current price, a slight decline followed by a rebound from the 1.07000 line, then a medium-term decline to the 1.04500 line after a pause in the upward trend to the upper trend line.
Second, breaking below the 1.07000 line from the current price, then a medium-term decline to the 1.04500 line.
In conclusion, we anticipate a decline to the 1.04500 line. If there are any unexpected movements, we will analyze them again and adjust our strategy accordingly.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. We kindly ask for your support through likes and subscriptions.
Recently, the strength of the dollar following the weakness of the yen has led to a decline in the euro. The surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank recently, along with dovish outlooks from the Fed, the Bank of England, and the ECB, suggests that major central banks may cut rates around June. It is anticipated that the euro may decline further than expected, with this week's key point being whether the US PCE price index will break its previous low.
- The US February PCE price index will be released on March 29.
- Fed Chair Powell's speech is scheduled for March 29.
- March 29 to April 1 is the Easter period.
Until the release of the PCE price index this week, there aren't any major issues. Therefore, movements in the yen, the timing of rate cuts by the ECB and the Fed, etc., will likely serve as the main sources of volatility. The euro currently shows a strong downward pressure on the chart, so it's important to determine whether it will rebound from the 1.07000 line or break below it.
In summary,
First, based on the current price, a slight decline followed by a rebound from the 1.07000 line, then a medium-term decline to the 1.04500 line after a pause in the upward trend to the upper trend line.
Second, breaking below the 1.07000 line from the current price, then a medium-term decline to the 1.04500 line.
In conclusion, we anticipate a decline to the 1.04500 line. If there are any unexpected movements, we will analyze them again and adjust our strategy accordingly.