Kumowizard

EUSTX50 - Choppy trading at the equilibrium

FX:EUSTX50   Euro Stoxx 50 index of European listed shares
54 0 1
Yours, mine, mine, yours... buy sell? What to do?

As you see no one knows. Price is clearly stuck in a tight range, in fact it is a choppy swinging exactly around the equilibrium level. But there is more!

Daily (Heiken Ashi candles):
Everything stays perfectly together to form a totally neutral picture to increase undecision.
- Flat future Kumo, with Kijun Sen and Senkou B (so the 26 days and 52 days averages) staying perfectly at same level
- Kijun Sen is flat too
- Price is swinging in the Kumo around Kijun Sen
- Heiken Ashi candle is ... hmmm, who knows? Should say bearish , but in fact it is a bearish like doji with huge wicks, which means serious undecision and nervous intraday trading
- MACD and DMI             are rather bearish
- first lower support almost got hit today, but the day is not yet finished

How much of QE is priced in? What is the general positioning in equities with expecting the ECB to bring on the biggest secret weapon ever?

4 Hrs:
What the hell is going to happen? Who knows. One thing is sure, it is going to happen soon, as the triangle is tightenning, the clock is ticking.
- Price is exactly trading in the short term equilibrium range now, so it is absolutely neutral, hard to make a bet (still below 100 WMA ). But before, on the previous candle...
- ... Price hit the top, then hit the bottom with almost a break on the downside. Ladies and Gentlemen, let me call your attention that is a 3 % move intraday! This kind of volatility is scary, as it defenately not a sign of a healthy bull mkt!
What is happening here intraday? I think Algos, computer based trading accts are about to go crazy. Once these HFT             liquidity providers widen their quotes or maybe even plug themselves out, then there will be no one to sell to.

OK, so far it is just a warning signal, things can still get back into normal and we may see a break on the top side, but in fact I started to become really worried about the general risk in the global system, with increasing volatility , less liquidity and such a big leverage, and with these less and less credible Central Banks on the side of the market field.

At some point money printing can not just solve everything. There will be an inflection point, where the exit gets too tight, where even with further Central Bank steps and promises things can go just wild and out of control.

Watch these mkts carefully, and remember, the most important principle is not making money, but protecting your capital through proper risk management and reasonable risk taking! (especially after today's SNB black swan event)
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