NaughtyPines

TRADE IDEA (PREMIUM SELLING): EWZ OCT 21ST 29.5 SHORT PUT

AMEX:EWZ   ISHARES INC ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL ETF
Here, I'm just looking to sell a little premium in the highest implied volatility , broad market underlying there is out there at the moment -- the Brazil exchange-traded fund, EWZ             . The Olympics, after all, are over, and no doubt body parts will be washing up again soon on Copacabana beach, PBR             will be undergoing yet another corruption/fraud/you-name-it scandal, and there is, of course, that whole impeachment thing ... .

Metrics:

Probability of Profit: 71%
Max Profit: $107/contract (at the mid)
Breakeven: 30.46

Notes: I'm basically selling the ~30 delta strike here. I'll look to roll the option down and out for duration and credit if the price of the option equals 2x what I received in credit for it. Otherwise, I'll leave it alone and look to cover the trade at 50% max profit. Naturally, there's a lot of air below the strike, but I'm mentally prepared to have to roll it down and out for a period of time to get it to "work out" ... .
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