MVedra

European Banking positioning for major declines

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EUREX:FESB1!   DJ EURO STOXX BANKS FUTURES
Euro interest rates are negative and the curve remains flat with no end in sight. This is destructive to net interest margin and the sustainability of European banks. Investors are stepping away from bank shares, having sold throughout 2018 and prices are back to 2009, 2012, and 2016 levels. European banks sector is now heading for a break to multi-year lows. Cycle bottoms are roughly 3.5 years apart. Mid-to-late 2019 marks the next bottom.