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Long

# \$GBP v. \$AUD - Geo Eyes 2.19 | #BOE #RBA #aussie #forex \$AUDUSD

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
950 18
Friends,

As per last week, \$GBPAUD reached its geometric             target along the Geo's 1-3 Line - See the frame-by-frame completion of that target in the thread below, immediately following this analysis.

For now, we are concentrating on the Geo's 5-point completion at its ectopic 5-prime (5') - As explained before, this placement is important as we seek a high-probability target if and once price reverses from either Point-5, Point-5' or Point-5''.

What the Geo             offers is a ranking of probability in terms of attainment if and once price reverses from these Poin-5 alternatives, such that a geometric             compensation occurs as price adversely excurse beyond the 1-3 Line. This forms the basis of the Geo's Off-Set Rule, which states that:

1 - Reversal from Point-5 offers the highest probability attainment along the 1-4 Line ( Wolfe Wave target) - Rule #1;

2 - Reversal from Point-5' offers the highest probability attainment at the price level corresponding to Point-4 - Rule #2;

and

3 - Reversal from Point-5'' offers the highest probability attainment at the price level corresponding to Point-3 - Rule #3.

In the chart, a reversal from 5' would thus offer the highest probability reversal at the price level corresponding to Point-4, whose range is 2.103 to 2.200.

As of this writing, a new candle formed, but the 5' validation remains pending (i.e.: price validates the 2-4 Line originating off of Point-3.

OVERALL:

Bearish outlook based on the geometric             compensation that constitutes Rule #2 of the Geo's Off-Set Rule.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

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Comment: 27 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Wolfe Wave completes in the vicinity of larger Geo's Point-3; WW is likely to complete its cycle seeking 1-4 Line validation:

David Alcindor
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com

Following is the preliminary analysis of \$GBPAUD from the "\$GBP | Predicxtive Analysis & Forecasting | 4xForecaster" room (Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#bZqW5FlhT8pAHG3O ):

==========================
27 SEP 2015 - \$GBPAUD - H4:

Watch for these lines and R/S levels.

Background geometry is a nascent Geo.

At a higher scale (daily and weekly), this represents a 4th wave correction. So, could this go higher than 2.24000?

Yes, at a level that may represent 1.313 to 1.414, unless a truncation.

We'll turn to the Predictive/Forecasting Model when the whole geometry completes, so as not to get too biased.

29 SEP 2015 - Re: \$GBPAUD

Price moved relative to the two significant levels defined in the following chart, posted yesterday:

Since then, it appears that the upper range held and is likely to send price to lower lows - Refer to prior DAILY chart for a larger perspective, where the Model had defined abysmal bearish targets - Following is the 4-Hour Chart as it appears at this moment:

30 SEP 2015 - Re: \$GBPAUD:

Price continues to follow forecast pathway closely:

02 OCT 2015 - \$GBPAUD - Chart Update:

Nearing the 1.618 level, but still short of the Geo's 103 Line - Remains bearish:

2 OCT 2015 - GBPAUD - Price validates R/S on the underside, then resumes bearish tack ... No change in forecast ... Look for 2.18614 as a level that would delay or change forecast - See H4 chart:

05 OCT 2015 - Re: \$GBPAUD - 4-Hour chart:

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\$GBPAUD hit Geo's 1-3 Line as forecast; Expecting a 5' validation as shown:

\$GBP \$AUD #RBA #aussie #forex #BOE
---------------------

David Alcindor

==================================

At this point, I will wait for price to manifest its own bullish stance. Any refinement will be offered by way of Elliott Wave analysis, geometries, and the use of the Predictive/Forecasting Model if need be.

Best,

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
You are truly in sync with the market !! Excellent performance David...
Yes, i follow this, thanks. Nice one here.
06 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here are the levels I would be most concerned about, keeping in mind that the higher frames are bullish:

The dashed arrow pathway suggests a higher-probability decline to the lower range as shown, whereas the orange square defined the 1-3 Line acting as a pending signal once BACA occurs.

David Alcindor
7 OCT 2015

GBPAUD

Hi David. Thank you for sharing another trading idea. From a technical point of view, if entering long in the Green Box, where would be a sensible SL placement on your chart.....5 pip plus spread below 2.10909? Also I have found a smaller Geo, would a sensible SL for my chart be below the 1.618 FE? Thank you very much Iefan
iefan
Hello @iefan - I would use the 1-2 Leg of the Geo and extend a 1.618-Fib downward ... This might offer a more accurate and "fresher" set of data, based on the scale of that Geo ... I see one as price completes its descent, so I hope we are talking about the same geometry (i.e.: the one taking place between the 6-7 OCT, with Point-1 right above the level of the 1.414 and Point-5 right below that same 1.414).

Are we seeing the same geometry?

David
4xForecaster
@iefan ... This one (on a M15 scale):

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
... Unless you are referring to this larger one (grey outlines)?

David
4xForecaster
My apologies David, I was not clear. The first question relates to your Trade Idea posted above ( at the very top of the page ). I'm looking for guidance in terms of a SL placement on a purely technical level for a LONG trade entered at Point 5', or in other words in the area of the Green Box in your chart. I suspect a sensible SL would be at the 1.414 FE of the 1 - 2 Leg....or would it be below the 1.618 FE of the 1 - 2 Leg? The next question I'll post below relates to the smaller Geo I posted, but also concerns SL placement on a technical level. I will separate the questions for clarity. Thank you very much. Iefan
iefan
@iefan - I see.

Yes, the 1.414-FE is a fair and reliable level when there is no other recourse. However, I would look for more recent data, such as the 5th wave of an impulse, which itself will tend to stretch across a 1.414 to 1.618-FE span.

In the chart you just posted above, the handles for that Fibonacci scale would use the low where price touches the green box as a low marker (i.e.: 100-Fib level) and the slight retracement into a tweezer-top, corresponding to the level of Point-3 (this would be the 0-Fib).

Makes sense?

David
4xForecaster
Thank you David, have I charted it correctly?
iefan
@iefan - Yes, exactly what I was seeing - David.
4xForecaster
Excellent, thank you David.
4xForecaster
My second question is about this slightly smaller Geo, inside your larger Geo. It is also a question about how best to determine a Technical SL. Do you always use the 1.414/1.618 FE off of the 1 - 2 Leg. Are there any occasions when you will use the FE off of the 3 - 4 Leg, and if so what would be the reason for using the 3 - 4 Leg, or for that matter any other leg in the Geo? Do you consider any other factors when placing a technical SL, like price structure, previous high or lows, Node/Nodules and how do you determine which to use.....I know it's an open ended question with many answers, but it's the area of my trading I'm struggling with the most, so any tips would be much appreciated.

A zoomed in picture of the above Geo.

iefan
@iefan - I use the Model.

However, in the absence of a predictive/forecasting model, I would tend to do the following:

1 - First: Establish a range off of the 1-2 Leg, using all available Fibonacci extensions, such as 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, 1.414 and 1.618

2 - Second: Establish a similar extension off of the 3-4 Leg and see whether there is any Fib cluster - If there is none, look no further and simply have recourse to the 1-3 Line validation with a SL below the recent low, regardless of the Fib - Only enter at the NEXT candle following a close above that 1-3 Line.

3 - Third: In case of a cluster Fib between the 1-2 and 3-4 Leg, then see whether the 2-3 Leg would tend towards the 1-2 or the 3-4 Fib cluster, and chose the closest one as a level of probable reversal.

4 - Additional supportive evidence is very much worth gathering regardless of whether you stopped at the second step, or moved on to the 3rd step - This additional evidence is at the LEFT of the price action, typically at higher timeframes, so as to discern any node/nodule, or simply R/S levels or clear structural extremes.

5 - Look for trendlines within an indicator, be it the RSI, MACD, stochastics or TRIX, as long as it is one that you are familiar with. Therein, also look for discreet positive or negative divergences (not bullish or bearish ones), especially those occurring within a few bars/candles (about 5-7 units).

6 - Elliott Wave count, although listed this low should really be entertained much sooner, but most traders would want to keep this depth of analysis either last or out of consideration ... When in fact, I would use that immediately after the 3rd step, IMO.

7 - Any central bank or other price-moving events coming up? Here, I would look data of fundamental nature that is known to directly impact the underlying asset (e.g.: central rates affecting the base or cross currency; gold news affecting \$AUD, \$CAD, \$CHF and \$NZD in this order; Oil affecting exporters such as \$CAD, \$USD, as well as dependent consumers such as \$JPY, but also \$USD and \$EUR; or commodity price such as dairy affecting NZD, ... etc.).

My point here is that if and once you have less and less handles to hang on to (i.e.: the initial steps of an analysis is leaving you with more and more doubt), then you have to have recourse to less technical and more fundamental data - If you are able to have a 5-point criteria well defined around a set of conditions that make sense to you, then you are starting to quantify extraneous events and circumstance that will affect different actors within the trading community, the aggregate effect will have a net correlation on price ... This is when you start to develop your own "quant-trading" model.

David
4xForecaster
Thank you very very much for this David, exactly what I was looking for!
4xForecaster
27 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Wolfe Wave completes in the vicinity of larger Geo's Point-3; WW is likely to complete its cycle seeking 1-4 Line validation:

David Alcindor
Ideas Scripts Chart
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