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$GBP v. $AUD Completes "Geo" Cycle At 5' | #BOE #RBA #forex $USD

FX:GBPAUD   British Pound/Australian Dollar
2031 36 29
Friends,

The Geo             has completed its geometric             cycle at a ectopic Point-5 level which is its most common occurrence, namely at 5-prime (5').


snapshot


Based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule, price is expected to decline and find its highest probability target at the price level corresponding to Point-4.


A prior analysis based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model had defined two qualitative targets, namely:

1 - TG-Lo = 1.87545 - 21 APR 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 1.85918 - 21 APR 2015


OVERALL:
Net bearish outlook based on the Geo's expectation, as well as Predictive/Forecasting Model's unanswered targets.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Comment: 28 SEP 2015 - I am working on this $GBPAUD chart - Keep an eye on this for a potential opp at a shorter timeframe.

As we continue to look at the DAILY chart, the goal here is to find a mechanism by which price would descend down to the level of Point-3 in reference to the large Geo we have been following.

There are some indications within the 4-Hour chart, as well as per the Predictive/Forecasting Model, that price could test 2.25275 as price attempts to complete its Geo cycle (i.e.: First, closing the 5-point geometry, then reaching counter-trend-wise away from the 1-3 Line, just as the Wolfe Wave pattern is know to behave as it seeks validation of its 1-4 Line.

Again, 4-hour chart coming up shortly.

David Alcindor
Comment: 22 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As the Geo completed its geometric cycle, price is not heading to its corresponding Rule #2 level:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 18 MAR 2016 - Chart Update: Target Hit

Price finally reached the Geo's level of Point-4, adhering to the Geo's Off-Set Rule #2. In addition, the Predictive/Forecasting Model's 1.87545 target, defined nearly a year ago on April 21st, 2015 was also reached yesterday:
snapshot


At this point, expect the lower qualitative target to get hit (at a lesser probability), and a reversal to occur at these levels.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price reached the lowest Qual-Target at 1.85918, which was defined last April 21st, 2015:
snapshot


This lower-probability, higher-reversibility target should prompt trader to look for reversal patterns.

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 14 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Note that price carved even lower-lows, now reaching a prior target defined on February 12th 2015 (over a year ago). While this target represented a lower probability target (as a Qualitative Target, or "Qual-Target"), the nature of these targets are associated with high-probability reversal power:

snapshot


Considering the recent discussion on imminent reversal in the $GBP vs. $CAD and imminent hit of the $USoil ($WTI) target, one should consider the possibility of a commodity-wide reversal, not only affecting #oil, but #gold as well ($XAU) ... Worth keeping an eye out for these commodities.

Best,


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
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I always appreciate your analysis. In this context I would argue that the unusual location of the point 5 is a canary in the coalmine, and relates to the GBP and US dollar becoming global safe havens as 1) fiat loses meaning in an unfolding credit collapse, and 2) liquidity demands a cash fall-back. No common person or business, in any geography, accepts EUR or AUD, but GBP still passes in some territories with the king of cash being US dollar. Once the Fed raises rates once, the GBP and DXY may just continue rising despite chart technicals. Does this argument hold water for you?
+1 Reply
Hello @venzen - The fundamentals I pay attention to is that which is released by central banks. So, I am not sure about the statements you made above regarding safety profile, credit collapse, cash fall-back and not accepting EUR or AUD.

In any case, I let the charts suggest their own stories, and tend to keep my own directional bias in suspension, simply because I have never been able to contradict the Predictive/Forecasting Model with my own attempted understanding of inter-market analysis, and that the few times I argued with sound fundamentals in mind, the Model proved me wrong too many times.

In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model absorbs the fundamentals and digests it in a visual array that makes the chart a better forecasting tool than I can come up on my own, regardless of the fundamental knowledge I believe I hold against the chart.

Certain things are known in advance, but thinking can sometimes be the very mechanism by which we strengthen the ignorance of things. I used to think, but the Model would do its own things better.


David
+6 Reply
26 July 2015

$GBPAUD

Hi David

A quick question if I may. On the daily candle we have a new high which closed above the previous high. I suspect this will not change your forecast but I'm still curious if you pay any attention to this new structure high, as generally ( correct me if I'm mistaken ) this is bullish and a further rally is probable.... Thank you for your time. Kind regards iefan
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - Sorry fr this delayed reply. I decided to take a bit of a vacation, so I will be in/out, off and on.

The gist of the forecast will NOT change, but the extent of this type of adverse excursion will matter greater: If price remains at a 5' level - even if it rallies a bit higher than the signal level (i.e.: BACA from 5'), then the target remains at the price level corresponding to Point-4.

In contrast, if the excursion brings price to a 5'' level, then according to the same implied rule (Geo's Off-Set Rule), then the target contracts up to the price level corresponding to Point-3.


David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi @David, thank you very much for your reply, I see now how to manage these trades! Thanks again. Hope you have a great break. iefan
+1 Reply
@iefan - Great. Excellent. Very glad you are progressing so well on your own.


David
+1 Reply
26 July 2015

$GBPAUD

Hi David

Related to my question in the above post, please have a look at my speculative chart on the 1 Hour TF. I'm still not sure if my ab-cd is charted correctly. Thank you. iefan
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+1 Reply
31 JUL 2015 - Reply:

@iefan - Yes, it appears to be placed correctly, as long as the b-point of the ab=cd symmetry corresponds to the lowest point.

I cannot recall whether I had defined a Nodular Core at the level shown in your chart, but if so, this occult geometry would certainly maintain its own resistance against further advance, which it seem is what occurred.

Very nice.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
31 JUL 2015 - Addendum:

The chart as of today:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
MarkLangley PRO 4xForecaster
I am looking at the same set up stood aside Friday because of the volatility and will look for sell setup Monday, always appreciate your analysis
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David

You did not define a Nodular Core for this pair as far as I'm aware, I used one of your previous lessons to try and spot if a Nodular Core was in the vicinity of present price action and found what I though was one and so decided to chart it, I mentioned your name to acknowledge that I derived it from your techniques. It seems to have stomped on the rally in a rather drastic manner.

Please could you have a look at my chart below and let me know if you think this is the most likely path that price will take. Thank you very much. Iefan
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - I am not seeing a ND defined in your chart.

A ND is a mid-impulse (not mid-correction, in terms of Elliott Wave morphology) geometric construction defined by a support-then-resistance in the case of a bearish impulse - or by a resistance-then-support, whereby the core of this formed range impacts price by its ability to impose and define a reversal (not retracement) level when price revisits this area, as well as the ability to impose a point of symmetry relative to the impulse wave which constructs it.

If such symmetry were to occur at the level where price initiates an impulse, then you would be dealing with a Euclidean Module (not nodule), which is a whole different beast of its own.

Feel free to post what you perceive to be a ND, so that I can better see what you are referring to.


David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David, my mistake for not being clear. This is the chart with the ND....if I have charted it correctly? I charted this ND with my 60 minute TF chart on the 26 July 2015 $GBPAUD as a possible top for the developing Geo at the time. Price did decline from the ND and I then posted the speculative WW/Geo development above some 4 days ago. Sorry for the confusion. Kind regards iefan
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan:

This is a NODE, not a nodule (i.e.: the node is greater than a nodule by a degree that is measured in Fibonacci levels with 0.386 being the minimum relative to the prior swing - In contrast, a nodule remains less than 0.386, may rally in the lesser Fibonacci order of 0.114 up to 0.214, which are complementary Fibonacci numbers of 0.886 and 0.786, respectively).

Hence, the core of the hidden geometry would be referred to as a nodal core, not a nodular core.

Great pick up!


David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks David, really appreciate the explanation, I think I got it now. I'll be looking for them all over the place from now on! Cheers
+1 Reply
Excellent - Feel free to ask, if I can help.

David
+2 Reply
16 Aug 2015

GBPAUD

Hi David. Would you mind critiquing my speculative Geo, I'm curious if you think it is likely that we will see a new high before the decline towards your abysmal target? Thank you kindly. Iefan
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Reply
24 Aug 2015

$GBPAUD

Hi David,

Spotted this Geo, quick question....does the new high in price adversely affect the probability of this Geo completing successfully in any way? Thank you . Iefan
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - By applying the Geo's Off-Set Rule, you are keeping the highest probability targets on your side.

Remember to avoid the 2-3 Leg trap, which tends to define too simpler a symmetry at first. Hence, what you have defined as a 5-prime could either be true, or simply Point-3.

Another way to verify this using the same geometric properties of the Geo is to look for any internal Geo. One may consider the existence of a smaller Geo whose Point-1 could originate between points 3 and 4 in your plotting, with Point-3 of the smaller Geo at the second validation of the upper dashed line, Point-4 of the smaller Geo the point of departure of the most recent bullish upswing. I have not looked at it closer, but this could make your 5' an actual 5'', thus limiting the current price decline to the upper red dashed line, as per the Geo's Off-Set Rule.

Worth looking into it as a way to "geometrically control" your risks in the larger Geo.

Overall, the original predictive analysis and forecasting will require a change in target, as we are only interested in the HIGHEST probability outcomes. In this case, there has been enough of change in the geometry that the most probable target, adjusted to the recent adverse excursion in price, will now rest at the level of Point-3.

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Thank you very much David, I see what you are saying.

Regarding the most likely price movement, have I charted it correctly on your original analysis?

One last question....is it more likely that price will continue up to Point 5" and then decline to the Level of Point 3, or is the decline more likely to continue from this point? Thank you
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+1 Reply
@iefan - 2.25220 is a probable ceiling, although once price tends to overshoot reasonable targets, then a higher timeframe likely fell under the control of stronger price moved (i.e.: institutional players), especially in the current climate of extremes movements and overreactions.

David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
1 Sep 2015

GBPAUD

Hi David. Do you expect that this is a probable movement of price, and in terms of a technical SL is this a sensible placement?

Thank you for and comments

Kind regards

iefan
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+1 Reply
2.1914 will slow bulls.
2.1980 will hold bulls.

D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2.1513 might work as support - Aligns well with Geo's Off-Set Rule-based target along Pt-4.

All invalidates if BACA > 2.1980 + spread.

D.
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
6 Sep 2015

GBPAUD

Hi David....a larger WW/Geo has formed, probable price decline from here...right?
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+1 Reply
Hello @iefan - Sorry I missed your question here, as I am looking back through charts.

David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Hi David. No worries at all, you gave plenty of guidance on this trade and it looks like me are on our way to your abysmal targets.....price action looking impulsive....
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+1 Reply
Hi, @iefan - You got it.

David
+1 Reply
14 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

This has been one of the most protracted trade. The 3-5' Line has served as a relatively good gauge to decipher any commitment to the downside - So, no BACA = No commitment from bears.

Based on Geo's Off-Set Rule, all prior target become less probable, compared to the one that remains near and at the level of price of Point-4:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Thank you for the update David, been watching this pair for a long time, since it hit Point 5'. Could I ask, from a technical point of view, had a trader ( me...lol ) entered aggressively at Point 5', where would have been a sensible SL placement. I elected to draw a 1.618 FE off of the 4-5' Leg....could you critique this decision and let me know if there is a more sensible technical SL placement for this trade. Thank you very much. Iefan
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
Sorry my chart....neglected to attach it!

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+1 Reply
@iefan - There is not one good SL, even in hindsight, when trying to look retrospectively at what-if scenarios - The risk of looking retrospectively is that of confabulation: It becomes too easy to tell oneself how things could have been, so I tend to develop rules and as long as they are consistent across assets and timeframes, I apply them and stick with tradable conditions that fall within the rule. If for instance I had to change my Fib extensions from 1.414 to 1.618, then again to 1.786, then I would be dealing with less relevant Fib levels applying to too rare circumstances.

However, there is always my crutche: The Predictive/Forecasting Model which had not been used to define a tolerable limit to the upswing. Now that I do this in hindsight, I looked backward (upside, in this case) and applied the Predictive Model by projecting a TG-Hix and obtained 2.183 as an extreme high target (see chart below). However, at this point, it would be most prudent to BACA < the 2.13981 level, as this represents the most recent structural low (i.e.: higher-low along the upswing):


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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
17 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:


Price is now testing lower structures, with internals suspiciously looking like bearish IMPs:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
1 OCT 2015

GBPAUD

Hi David

Any insight into what price is likely to do when this WW/Geo completes would be greatly appreciated. Kind regards Iefan
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+1 Reply
@iefan - Watch for 2.127 and 2.121 range ... Yes, it might pierce through the 1-3 Line first ... Got orders pending in that neighborhood.

David
+2 Reply
Hi David.

Many congratulations on attaining your CMT credentials!

Looking forward to more of your superb lessons

Kind regards

Iefan
+1 Reply
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