4xForecaster

At A Terminal Top? | $GBP $CAD #BOE #BOC #Forex

FX:GBPCAD   British Pound/Canadian Dollar
Friends,

Looking at a finer granular level (H4), 3 patterns call for a terminal top - Worth balancing against bullish scenario - Rate decision this week is likely to remain unchanged, as per major bank consensus.

As shared earlier, weekly chart calls for additional upwards mobility, whereas Daily/H4 charts are topping off.

Predictive/forecasting model remains silent for now, pending additional data, in contrast to my persona bias, which is neutral-to-bearish.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
madeeya.saba
2 years ago
TG-low remain intact?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO madeeya.saba
2 years ago
@madeeya.saba - The TG-Lo was released this week-end on market's close - Nothing has happened since then.

The value of TG-Lo is based on a Fib value of 61.8%, and not based on my predictive/forecasting model. It was defined to highlight the line-up of technical events (Cypher, long-term trendline and Fib) as per this chart:

snapshot


For a definitive target, there are two scenarios I am waiting for:

1 - Price validates the trendline

or

2 - Price continues downwards until the model provides added confirmation on direction and target.

Overall direction for the time being is neutral, as defined above.

David Alcindor

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madeeya.saba 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thanks for sharing your such a valueable model. i was auctually asking on 4h chart where you have predicted TG-1 = 1.828 and TG low = 1.8156. is tg low intact ? anxiously waiting for your valueable comment on this Sir.
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kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Sorry for my foolish question. You have already clear it. thanks
+1 Reply
12 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

As defined in the original chart above, $GBPCAD's rejection zone (1.841/1.839) remains well in force, as bears were able to hold their ground at recent testing.

A bearish target in the smaller timeframe eyes 1.81709 as a probable support level, whereas the longer timeframe targets, which are defined purely off of Fibs, maintain some probable value, but will require more solid data to feed into the model for added precision - This will come with time.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
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kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
great
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GBPCAD - Kiss Of Death Completion; Counter-Trend Opportunity
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Just a little look back on this trade - Good to see that the Kiss Of Death ("KoD") held its reputation.

David Alcindor
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kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
upto what depth GBPCAD will fall Sir?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
Hi, @kmk.msp - As indicated in the DAILY chart below, the probable target (TG) is at 1.76419, provided that structure lows are overcome.

In the most immediate development, if 1.82334 supportive floor breaks, it would open to 1.81152 as a moderate probable TG, and 1.79949 as a low-probable target.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
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kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thanKS David Alchindor
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13 MAY 2014 - Chart Update: H4, Daily and Weekly Views


USDCAD - H4: Bearish 3-Drives ... Diamond Top ... Bearish Kiss of Death ... Bears Are Throwing The Kitchen Sink At Bulls!
snapshot



USDCAD - Daily: Battle of The Bulges ... H&S Wins, Cup Broke Up
snapshot



USDCAD - Weekly: Bird's Eye View ... The Long Haul
snapshot
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13 MAY 2014 - H4 Chart Targets:

- From Twitter just now:

"Higher-prob. scenario: Bearish (blue arrows); Targets Defined |
snapshot
via @tradingview $GBPCAD $GBP $CAD #forex"

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
14 MAY 14 - Chart Update:

snapshot


- From recent Twitter message:

=======================
"Chart Update: Forecast in force, targets intact:
snapshot
via @tradingview $GBPCAD $GBP #BOE #forex - https://www.tradingview.com/e/DG7ee4GR/# "

...

"@tradingview $AUDJPY, $GBPJPY, $USDJPY all fell under common denominator - Strengthening of #Yen is the hammering tool shaping these bears."
=======================

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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14 MAY 2014 - Twitter message/Update:

===============
"$GBPCAD Update: Price reached forecast support; expect bounce then continuation:
snapshot
via @tradingview - $GBP $CAD #forex "
===============


snapshot



David Alcindor
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flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Taking the trade.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO flibbr
2 years ago
@flibbr, - Be careful with late entries. If entering this late, consider SL @ 1.82328 per M15 calibration - David
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flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
yeah I have placed limit sell for the bounce target with a stop above the rejection level.. so if it gets hit.. good.. see how it goes.. if not.. always another trade :)
+1 Reply
16 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

Per Twitter MSG:

"$GBPCAD: Price continues to follow forecast pathway; Resistance @1.83262 may represent relief rally
snapshot
via @tradingview"

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
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20 MAY 2014 - Update:

Twitter feed:

"$GBPCAD: Look for completion of another KoD; Model bias remains strongly bearish;
snapshot
via @tradingview $GBP $CAD #forex"

snapshot


Cheers,


David Alcindor
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4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE: Please, note that in the original chart, I erroneously plotted the KoD within the diamond top. It was offset by on top, and should instead overlap with the points defining the Bearish 3-Drives. I hope I did not confuse anyone - David
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21 MAY 2014 - Update:

From Twitter feed:

"$GBPCAD Update: Major Rejection Level challenged; Break above 1.84653 would likely deny lower targets -
snapshot
@tradingview"

snapshot


A major advance has challenged the overhead resistance. A new resistance zone has been defined higher up, but price would need to rally further above 1.84653 to challenge new higher grounds and turn its back on the lower targets.

David Alcindor
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28 MAY 2014 - Update: TG-1 Hit ... :

From Twitter:

"$GBPCAD: TG-1 Target Hit; relief rally to 1.82355 is probable; TG-2 remains open - 1https://www.tradingview.com/x/IMo9r6R2/ via @tradingview "

snapshot


At this point, a relief rally to the prior relevant structure @ 1.82355 is probable, offering price a relief rally before engaging the second target @ 1.79954.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
so this is time to buy GBPCAD at current level. What could be the SL? thanks
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
Hello @kmk.msp - The answer lies in how much you are willing to expose.

I usually recommend taking a position NOT relative to the forecast target, but relative to the risk of loss (EAGLE strategy, which seeks the most (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry).

If your SL exposes you to risk more than a percentage of your asset, then I would say the choice is not prudent.

Remember that the risk of exposure is a number that pretty much tells you how many times it will tell you to play until you lose everything. So, if you risk 20%, it will take 20% x 5 = 100%, or 5 losing trades to lose 100% of your assets.

In contrast, you could set your risk tolerance at 5% (which is already quite high), and in this calculation, you are flipping the odds to having to lose 20 times before loosing everything.

Now, going to your question, I hope this calculation helps you determine what you are willing to lose, or in the same token, how many times you are willing to play.

Each trade is determined by the trader. At the end, your risk tolerance will define the SL for you.

Hope this helps.

David Alcindor
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
thanks a lot for your detailed answer. It is now clear to me.
+1 Reply
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