4xForecaster

At A Terminal Top? | $GBP $CAD #BOE #BOC #Forex

FX:GBPCAD   British Pound/Canadian Dollar
Friends,

Looking at a finer granular level (H4), 3 patterns call for a terminal top - Worth balancing against bullish scenario - Rate decision this week is likely to remain unchanged, as per major bank consensus.

As shared earlier, weekly chart calls for additional upwards mobility, whereas Daily/H4 charts are topping off.

Predictive/forecasting model remains silent for now, pending additional data, in contrast to my persona bias, which is neutral-to-bearish.

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
28 MAY 2014 - Update: TG-1 Hit ... :

From Twitter:

"$GBPCAD: TG-1 Target Hit; relief rally to 1.82355 is probable; TG-2 remains open - /x/IMo9r6R2/# via @tradingview "

snapshot


At this point, a relief rally to the prior relevant structure @ 1.82355 is probable, offering price a relief rally before engaging the second target @ 1.79954.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
so this is time to buy GBPCAD at current level. What could be the SL? thanks
+1 Reply
Hello @kmk.msp - The answer lies in how much you are willing to expose.

I usually recommend taking a position NOT relative to the forecast target, but relative to the risk of loss (EAGLE strategy, which seeks the most (E)xtremely (AG)gressive (L)evel of (E)ntry).

If your SL exposes you to risk more than a percentage of your asset, then I would say the choice is not prudent.

Remember that the risk of exposure is a number that pretty much tells you how many times it will tell you to play until you lose everything. So, if you risk 20%, it will take 20% x 5 = 100%, or 5 losing trades to lose 100% of your assets.

In contrast, you could set your risk tolerance at 5% (which is already quite high), and in this calculation, you are flipping the odds to having to lose 20 times before loosing everything.

Now, going to your question, I hope this calculation helps you determine what you are willing to lose, or in the same token, how many times you are willing to play.

Each trade is determined by the trader. At the end, your risk tolerance will define the SL for you.

Hope this helps.

David Alcindor
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
thanks a lot for your detailed answer. It is now clear to me.
+1 Reply
21 MAY 2014 - Update:

From Twitter feed:

"$GBPCAD Update: Major Rejection Level challenged; Break above 1.84653 would likely deny lower targets -
snapshot
@tradingview"

snapshot


A major advance has challenged the overhead resistance. A new resistance zone has been defined higher up, but price would need to rally further above 1.84653 to challenge new higher grounds and turn its back on the lower targets.

David Alcindor
Reply
20 MAY 2014 - Update:

Twitter feed:

"$GBPCAD: Look for completion of another KoD; Model bias remains strongly bearish;
snapshot
via @tradingview $GBP $CAD #forex"

snapshot


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
NOTE: Please, note that in the original chart, I erroneously plotted the KoD within the diamond top. It was offset by on top, and should instead overlap with the points defining the Bearish 3-Drives. I hope I did not confuse anyone - David
Reply
16 MAY 2014 - Chart Update:

Per Twitter MSG:

"$GBPCAD: Price continues to follow forecast pathway; Resistance @1.83262 may represent relief rally
snapshot
via @tradingview"

snapshot


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
14 MAY 2014 - Twitter message/Update:

===============
"$GBPCAD Update: Price reached forecast support; expect bounce then continuation:
snapshot
via @tradingview - $GBP $CAD #forex "
===============


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
flibbr PRO 4xForecaster
Taking the trade.
+1 Reply
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