UncleBullFX

GBPCAD Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

OANDA:GBPCAD   British Pound / Canadian Dollar
#GBPCAD 4H OANDA:

The pair GBPCAD is moving in an overall bearish trend , but on the 11th of September it has reached a strong support level and since then it has been reversing to the upside. Although we’ve been moving bullish for the past month or so on this pair, we are still in a higher time frame bearish trend . The formation of the minor bullish trend that started at the 11th of September 2020 has been choppy and not clearly moving in a parallel channel or creating Higher-Lows and Higher-Highs. That is mainly due to EU-Brexit talks that have been interrupting the flow of the market. We still believe that the currency GBP is bearish since fundamentals are pointing towards a no deal between the EU and the U.K. Hence, why our confirmations are far away from current price action. Furthermore, we have Canada’s Interest Rate Decision and Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM, which might cause false breakouts on some levels. We would like to see more movement towards the upside or downside to take a trade.

Bullish Scenario Confirmations:

We would like to see a clean 4H candle close above the 61.80% Fibonacci level and above the higher timeframe descending trendline to take a buy position. We will execute by taking 1.5% risk on directly after candle close and will keep another 1.5% risk position ready in case of pullback to previous resistance converting into support. If the market pulls back and closes below the (1.73219) key level then we will not take another position.

Target 1: 1.73956
Target 2: 1.74899
Target 3: 1.75495

If Target 1 is reached will secure 70% of our positions and move our SL to breakeven. We will secure 15% on Target 2 and 15% on Target 3.

Bearish Scenario Confirmations:

Wait for a clean 4H candle close below the 23.60% fib level (1.69675) to enter short positions. We will execute by taking 1.5% risk on directly after candle close and will keep another 1.5% risk position ready in case of pullback and respect of previous support converting to resistance. If the market pulls back and closes above the 23.60% fib level (1.69675) then we will not take another position.

Target 1: 1.69064
Target 2: 1.68404

If Target 1 is reached will secure 70% of our positions and move our SL to breakeven. We will secure 30% on Target 2.

📰 Volatile News Affecting GBPCAD:

1) Canada Interest Rate Decision
2) Bank of Canada Press Conference
3) United Kingdom Autumn Budget
4) Canada Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM

⚠️Risk Only: 2-3% — Follow the trading plan provided by Uncle Bull to know the risk to reward management strategy that you should follow.

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Thanks :-)
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