FX:GBPCHF British Pound/Swiss Franc
GBPCHF is trading in an , . PA reached the top boundary and 127.2 ext of previous high on very strong impulse leg from the bottom channel boundary. Although the 113 ext at 52 provides support last week the breach is likely to test 5122. The support can be observed on the too (red TL).
With an averaged entry on first the gartley and than shark or only shark the PA reversed at TL hitting T1 for 30 pips (resp. 40 pips) and is at 50fib at the moment. I do expect the PA to reach T2 and a possible stop at 78.6 for a turning on the bullish cypher completion. If this should not happen, we might see PA making new low and hitting ext. T3 @127.2 for further bearish behavior.
Hm, I don't go that far, mate. Would like 1st to see the PA test the breakout and perhaps going lower as you suggest. I'll take from there and see if there's a possible harmonic move indicating a new high. We can be caught by surprise with PA shooting for a new high with no bigger ret. and diving from the new higher high. This bullish rally is based on Carney's announcement for no additional rate hikes until 2015. The point is, will the BoE stick to that or hike earlier, or, was this another way to just pump the pound higher only to pull it lower. :)
Yes It is indeed not easy to determine how much of a retracement we are going to get. I have a bullish bias for GBPUSD as there is no correlation (0.67% negative correlation on the weekly) between it and GBPCHF That is why this week we will get a rise in GBPUSD and dip in GBPCHF after that a reversal of both is likely.
Be careful with GBPUSD I would keep those stop losses really tight, I think we still owe one upward wave before correcting. Price is sitting right above a top a pitchfork that has been broken and until now since I have been applying EW on this pair it has been obeying these waves quiet well.. Also take a look at this RSI (it is sitting on the bottom of a channel (schiff pitchfork). Wishing you lots of pips