fximperija
Short

#GBPCHF short - test of #breakout

FX:GBPCHF   British Pound/Swiss Franc
GBPCHF             is trading in an ascending channel, bullish trend . PA reached the top boundary and 127.2 ext of previous high on very strong impulse leg from the bottom channel boundary. Although the 113 ext at 52 provides support last week the breach is likely to test 5122. The support can be observed on the RSI too (red TL).
fximperija
2 years ago
On the H4 chart we can see ABCD pattern not completed due to PA reversal at TL. However, the PA made a new descending TL, part of the widening wedge. Focus on the wedge in the next chart.
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fximperija fximperija
2 years ago
Here is the wedge on H1 with 3 tradable bearish patterns, a gartley (blue), and shark (red) teamed up with another gartley (green).
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fximperija fximperija
2 years ago
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fximperija fximperija
2 years ago
The first gartley reached T1 @38.2fib for 27 pips, T2 @61.8fib for 44 pips and extended T3 @127.2fib.ext. for 93 pips
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fximperija fximperija
2 years ago
With an averaged entry on first the gartley and than shark or only shark the PA reversed at TL hitting T1 for 30 pips (resp. 40 pips) and is at 50fib at the moment. I do expect the PA to reach T2 and a possible stop at 78.6 for a turning on the bullish cypher completion. If this should not happen, we might see PA making new low and hitting ext. T3 @127.2 for further bearish behavior.
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fourkey2013
2 years ago
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I am thinking of more of this.. Fits in well with your idea :)
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fximperija fourkey2013
2 years ago
I thought so in the 1st place but than I realized it's a widening wedge not a channel with parallel TLs.
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HamzaLeith
2 years ago
Nice piece of work fximperija, Elliot Wave also suggests price is going down, are there any additional harmonic patterns suggesting a rise after the drop mentioned in your idea? If my count is right then I think we still owe wave 5 (rise above the previous high) after that drop. Cheers Hamza
GBPCHF, going short then long!
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fximperija HamzaLeith
2 years ago
Hm, I don't go that far, mate. Would like 1st to see the PA test the breakout and perhaps going lower as you suggest. I'll take from there and see if there's a possible harmonic move indicating a new high. We can be caught by surprise with PA shooting for a new high with no bigger ret. and diving from the new higher high. This bullish rally is based on Carney's announcement for no additional rate hikes until 2015. The point is, will the BoE stick to that or hike earlier, or, was this another way to just pump the pound higher only to pull it lower. :)
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HamzaLeith fximperija
2 years ago
Yes It is indeed not easy to determine how much of a retracement we are going to get. I have a bullish bias for GBPUSD as there is no correlation (0.67% negative correlation on the weekly) between it and GBPCHF That is why this week we will get a rise in GBPUSD and dip in GBPCHF after that a reversal of both is likely.
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fximperija HamzaLeith
2 years ago
I can agree with you that a rise in GBPUSD will force GBPCHF down a bit more. Cheers
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HamzaLeith fximperija
2 years ago
Let us hope so!, I am in both trades and a bit worried about the exposure :P
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fximperija HamzaLeith
2 years ago
Me too, got short GBPUSD on double top and looking for test of the breakout @1.70. With RSI divergence and this bearish shark PA might go even lower before shooting up, if any.
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HamzaLeith fximperija
2 years ago
Be careful with GBPUSD I would keep those stop losses really tight, I think we still owe one upward wave before correcting. Price is sitting right above a top a pitchfork that has been broken and until now since I have been applying EW on this pair it has been obeying these waves quiet well.. Also take a look at this RSI (it is sitting on the bottom of a channel (schiff pitchfork). Wishing you lots of pips
GBPUSD is going up and then down.
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fximperija
2 years ago
Update: Final target hit for 104 pips, reversing on bearish gartley
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BartoshG fximperija
2 years ago
Hello, what's the best way to contact you ? Thanks and sorry for bothering you :)
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