fximperija
Short

#GBPCHF short - test of #breakout

FX:GBPCHF   British Pound/Swiss Franc
GBPCHF             is trading in an ascending channel , bullish trend . PA reached the top boundary and 127.2 ext of previous high on very strong impulse leg from the bottom channel boundary. Although the 113 ext at 52 provides support last week the breach is likely to test 5122. The support can be observed on the RSI too (red TL).
Update: Final target hit for 104 pips, reversing on bearish gartley
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BartoshG fximperija
Hello, what's the best way to contact you ? Thanks and sorry for bothering you :)
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Nice piece of work fximperija, Elliot Wave also suggests price is going down, are there any additional harmonic patterns suggesting a rise after the drop mentioned in your idea? If my count is right then I think we still owe wave 5 (rise above the previous high) after that drop. Cheers Hamza
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fximperija HamzaLeith
Hm, I don't go that far, mate. Would like 1st to see the PA test the breakout and perhaps going lower as you suggest. I'll take from there and see if there's a possible harmonic move indicating a new high. We can be caught by surprise with PA shooting for a new high with no bigger ret. and diving from the new higher high. This bullish rally is based on Carney's announcement for no additional rate hikes until 2015. The point is, will the BoE stick to that or hike earlier, or, was this another way to just pump the pound higher only to pull it lower. :)
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HamzaLeith fximperija
Yes It is indeed not easy to determine how much of a retracement we are going to get. I have a bullish bias for GBPUSD as there is no correlation (0.67% negative correlation on the weekly) between it and GBPCHF That is why this week we will get a rise in GBPUSD and dip in GBPCHF after that a reversal of both is likely.
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fximperija HamzaLeith
I can agree with you that a rise in GBPUSD will force GBPCHF down a bit more. Cheers
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HamzaLeith fximperija
Let us hope so!, I am in both trades and a bit worried about the exposure :P
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fximperija HamzaLeith
Me too, got short GBPUSD on double top and looking for test of the breakout @1.70. With RSI divergence and this bearish shark PA might go even lower before shooting up, if any.
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HamzaLeith fximperija
Be careful with GBPUSD I would keep those stop losses really tight, I think we still owe one upward wave before correcting. Price is sitting right above a top a pitchfork that has been broken and until now since I have been applying EW on this pair it has been obeying these waves quiet well.. Also take a look at this RSI (it is sitting on the bottom of a channel (schiff pitchfork). Wishing you lots of pips
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I am thinking of more of this.. Fits in well with your idea :)
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