GBPCHF: window for buy is open

The GBPCHF pair, like most of the cross-rates, is burdened by fluctuations within a clearly delineated flat. For some crosses (for example, EURGBP) - this is a narrow range, but for the others (for example, GBPCHF or GBPJPY), the range is very significant. But the general rule is still the same - buying from the bottom of the range, selling from the top. Now, the pair GBPCHF fluctuates in the local range of 1.30-1.38. At the same time, the tendency towards the growth of the pair was prevailing lately (the pair increased from 1.18 to 1.38). In this light, buying a pair from 1.30-1.31 with targets around 1.37-1.38 and stops below 1.30 looks like a good trading idea.

But one factor can be seen on the horizon, which can provoke a sharp increase of the pair up to the mark of 1.45 (the average value of the cross-rate before Brexit) or even 1.55 (the upper limit of the pair's fluctuation range in the period before Brexit). This is the so-called referendum on "living money", which will be held in Switzerland on June 10. Voting "yes" will mean breaking down the existing banking system (and this will happen in Switzerland, which is traditionally considered the world standard of the banking business) with not clear consequences, and thus provoke at least a local panic and a temporary outflow of investors from the Swiss franc. If they vote "no", then this will mean that everything will stay as is, that is, there is no reason for a sharp strengthening of the franc.

In total, buying GBPCHF from the current prices seems to us a good trading idea. At least, it can be a possibility to trade a rebound from the lower limit of the local range and earn 500-600 points (at the same time risk only 100-200 points), but as a maximum we can witness flash crash in franc pairs and participate in it (with the same amount of risks in 100-200 points you can earn up to 1500-2000 points).