Trend Continuation or Trend Reversal ??? GBPJPY

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
I am curious of what you think about this trade?
Be eying it you might see a bullish trend , the market had been going up strong. However, when we examine the technicality of the most recent move, we determine that the market is bearish . We at Pro Trading University entered the market in a shorting position.

So, I am curious, would you call this a trend continuation trade or a trend reversal trade?
Let me know in the comments below :)
you may wait for tomorrow if the rate hike or remain unchange . till then due to low volatility remain neutral .
+1 Reply
Ahmed-J AndreicaAdrian
It's surely acting neutral for the past few hours.
I agree, I`m short on small range break 177.82, but I would not laugh at market. once you get too much confident - it tends to make few slaps right on the face. Good hunting. Cheers
Ahmed-J Nightwish
Nice. And I am just in a laughing mode today. I didn't enter this trade because I think it will be a winner. It just meets my trading rules. I am prepared to loose like a man :)
Im in the MOST tiering prosess of backtesting exactly the Break and retouch, as i said my filters are the RSI over bought/sold over/under the 50.0000. And min 1-1 RTR. Doing it on the 15 min on diff. pairs ;)
Ahmed-J spiterman
That's great spiterman. Please keep me updated with your results. I backtested the advanced patterns and tried to put the RSI as a filter. The RSI filter didn't do much with the advanced patterns. I hope it will be a good filter with break and retouch though
Since you asked ~~~~ I agree that this is a valid set up ~~~~~~
Purely based on structure . . . as your chart shows . . .
I would argue that after a series of higher highs and higher lows - green lines -
an uptrend ~~~~ structure was then broken to the down side with a lower high
followed by a lower low. The first indication of a possible trend change - red lines.
This breakdown is now being tested and any break above 178.20 indicates the
breakdown has failed and the uptrend will likely continue (here again probably with a retest
of that level) Thus trend continuation upside is confirmed above 178.74 and to the
downside below 177.20 area.
{{ throw in a little Elliott Wave and this indicates a reason why the retest of broken structure
might fail. Has the look of a classic impulse wave, other than the crappy weak 3rd wave,
currently coming out of a 4th wave a-b-c correction }}
It will be interesting to see which wins out.
thanks for the chart it was an interesting study !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wishing you lots of pips in 2015 !!!!!!!
Ahmed-J dojitrader
I loved the flow of your analysis. You also threw Elliot waves in, that's amazing. I love sharing thoughts and different views on the market. I wish you many pips too :)
I would personally would like to see the RSI over the 50.0000 line before going short, but classic break and touch pre structure. I like it, i don't know if i would say a shift in trend, but bed. room to go short there
Ahmed-J spiterman
Great insight Spiterman. Break and retouch have about 50% winning percentage. However, the risk/reward ration is always great and makes it worth trading them.
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