Short retrace, then Long to W CP/200 ema of 1 H

Weekly and Monthly Charts support long trend. Latest long retracement is the strongest in weeks. Gives me pause to think that the bulls are re-entering. Price needs a fib retrace before moving up again. If price breaks 143.18, then long speculation is off the table. Looking for my first buy around 143.50ish with S/L at 143.16. TGT is Weekly CP Pivot and 1 H 200 ema, around 146.75.

Comment:

Long order triggered at 143.53. Let's see if my speculation has any teeth.

Trade active:

Don't we love it when a plan come together? 50+ up. Break Even stop, no risk trade. Going to sleep. Lets see what Asia and follow up Europe can bring tomorrow.

Comment:

12 hours later. Trade is intact. 15 m shows a bottom forming with higher highs and lows. Would love to see a break and hold above 144.90 today. That would give me stronger confirmation that the plan to 146.75 has potential.

Trade active:

24 hours later: the 4H just closed way above the 144.90. This gives me further confidence that the bottom is building and forming into a more solid structure. The shorts here must be sweating bullets. IMO, still tracking towards 146.75. Tomorrow's NFP may be the catalyst, as volume should begin to shrink up later today in anticipation.

Trade active:

D-Day of the NFP. Within 3.5 hrs, I will know if my hard work and analysis has its payday at my goal of 146.75. I lost the confluence of the 1 H 200 ema, however, that is miniscule. The biggest confluence of 146.75 is the W CP and the resistance of early May of 147ish. I see a lot of shorts have piled on here. Being the contrarian that I am, I take that as a good sign. Good luck to all the long trigger pullers. See you on the other side of the cashier, as we count our bills. Cheers!

Trade active:

Addendum: note the higher lows of the past daily bars

Trade active:

Happy Days. Keeping the trade on because all systems say go. Up 260 pips from enty on 29 May. Just needs a kick in the pants to hit goal of 146.75. Come Sunday night, I will reassess where the new pivots will lie and decide my next move. I have a lot of house money to decide with. My hope is to reach the M R2 pivot, which happens to be just below a large resistance, around 153.55. I would close all of my trades if they hit 153.55.

Trade closed manually:

Luck o' the Irish. Partial trade closed at 146.70, about 320+ pip profit. I believe the larger long trend is back in place. Now setting a resting short hedge trade to protect my other 1/2 longs that are still riding. Short set at 146.45 with TGT at 145.25. From there will assess to add even more lots for another leg higher to 150.00.

Trade closed manually:

Manually closed the short hedge at 156.17. Just before GBP PMI news, added longs. Waiting for targets to hit on Weekly R1 approx 147.15. Still believe a larger short correction should be coming, so I will react accordingly. Otherwise, longs from 143.54 still in play. I have a resting long at 145.25 if/when PA drops in short correction.

Trade closed manually:

Closed longs at 146.71 for 34+. Took hedge shorts at 146.75. Still looking to collect at 145.25 and then look for bounce to 150.00 eventually. Just playing the hedges because I have house money from longs at 143.53.

Trade closed manually:

Closed all of my longs (300+) because my perception is changing. I was believing that the Bulls could take price to 150.00. Price grinded for days to reach 148.00 and now signs are building to a lower push than I had expected (145.25). I have thoughts that price may aim for the Weekly Trendline that hits swing lows in Nov 2017, Feb 2018, and May 2018. Last week's Weekly candlestick hammer matches what is forming today on Friday. Perfectly inverted. Can't stay married to the GBP/JPY always, because it has a mind of its own.

Conclusion: I am now fully vested in shorts from 147.45 with target of 142.25 (weekly trendline extension from May 2018 and Monthly S1 pivot).

Trade active:

Short at 147.45