DOUBLE DESCENDING TRIANGLE ON 4H AND 1H TF + FUND. ANALYSIS
Long time no post. I'm currently short at GBP/JPY 4H chart.
Fundamentals : In the short-term there is no clear fundamental driver for GBP, but for the long-term outlook Brexit and its development would still be the driver for GBP to go lower. Many analysts predict that Brexit would eventually hit UK GDP and there-fore has a bearish bias on the GBP. This is accompanied by bullish bias on JPY due to recent geo-political turbulence between US and several middle east countries (Syria & Afghanistan). This fundamental combination can lead to a further downward pressure on GBP/JPY.
Technicals :
As seen on the chart, the desecending triangle on 4H TF has been formed and followed by a break-down. The next triangle (clearly visible on 1H) has been formed and also followed by a break-down, gives a very strong bearish signal. Meanwhile, on the higher TF (daily) price has finally closed below the previous swing low at 136.45 indicating a bearish rotation in the higher TF.
Execution :
I've already shorted the market at 137.16 when I saw bearish momentum started to pick up before the break-down occurred. Currently my SL is at 137.52 (has been rolled-down to minimize risk) and am shooting for a Target at 130.22. Giving me an almost 20 to 1 R/R Ratio. My plan is to manage this trade as price moves in my expected direction, which means I'm willing to further reduce my risk by lowering my SL according to price action.
For you guys who's still flat. You can look to get short at market or waiting for a small pull-back. Hope this one helpful, and fell free to let me know what you guys think.
Thankyou.
Fedro Christian
Fundamentals : In the short-term there is no clear fundamental driver for GBP, but for the long-term outlook Brexit and its development would still be the driver for GBP to go lower. Many analysts predict that Brexit would eventually hit UK GDP and there-fore has a bearish bias on the GBP. This is accompanied by bullish bias on JPY due to recent geo-political turbulence between US and several middle east countries (Syria & Afghanistan). This fundamental combination can lead to a further downward pressure on GBP/JPY.
Technicals :
As seen on the chart, the desecending triangle on 4H TF has been formed and followed by a break-down. The next triangle (clearly visible on 1H) has been formed and also followed by a break-down, gives a very strong bearish signal. Meanwhile, on the higher TF (daily) price has finally closed below the previous swing low at 136.45 indicating a bearish rotation in the higher TF.
Execution :
I've already shorted the market at 137.16 when I saw bearish momentum started to pick up before the break-down occurred. Currently my SL is at 137.52 (has been rolled-down to minimize risk) and am shooting for a Target at 130.22. Giving me an almost 20 to 1 R/R Ratio. My plan is to manage this trade as price moves in my expected direction, which means I'm willing to further reduce my risk by lowering my SL according to price action.
For you guys who's still flat. You can look to get short at market or waiting for a small pull-back. Hope this one helpful, and fell free to let me know what you guys think.
Thankyou.
Fedro Christian
Trade closed: stop reached