The risk prevalent in the market doesn't justify the continuation of strength in the majors ex-JPY. The trade war that is being discussed by the media will most likely play out over the next 3-12 months, as Trump is unlikely to back down. While there is an opportunity for the two sides to come to an agreement or, at the very least begin discussing alternative options, I believe there will be more negative news before anything positive occurs. This is simply due to two global super powers strategically maneuvering to better position themselves going forward.
Trade active:
It has taken awhile and the driving factors have been more economic than political; however, the turn has begun and I continue to see the geo-political issues affecting the risk-off positioning. Technicals will continue to pressure the pound to the downside. Staying with my short and will look to add if retraces into the mid 151s. Alternatively, if it continues to fall below 149, I will look to add if retraces back to 150.50.
Trade active:
Price action is confirming the downtrend, but I would need to see a close below 148 to believe we will see 141 prior to 154. Price is working in that direction so patience and risk management is key here.
Trade closed: target reached:
Short term target has been reached and I am now looking to retrace the move or wait for a higher price to enter another short for the longer term.