After a five impulse wave structure and three a-b-c correction waves, the down-trend line for GBPJPY was broken for a short while, and then the upside breakout stalled. You would expect that the ending point of wave-5 will lie on the lower trend-line, and, and the exact ending point of wave-5 should be determined by other technical analysis tools, including harmonic chart pattern formation, Fibonacci levels, or any strong resistance or support levels. GBPJPY looks to be heading lower.
I discipline myself to use a TRADE-MAP approach. I have to remind myself to use "best practices" and not let emotions cloud my view. TRADE-MAP stands for:
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. This is my personal "TRADE-MAP" approach. Your technical tools certainly can differ.
The following information (my interpretation of the above chart) is for GBPJPY. Here are "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING relative to structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving LOWER (on the shorter time duration charts) and will most likely reverse on this daily chart. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is reversing and HEADING DOWN.
6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is heading lower. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is turning NEGATIVE (not quite red over green yet).
8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is WEAK, and may fail a ZERO LINE CROSS-OVER ATTEMPT, and if it returns to the negative direction, this is generally a powerful down signal. 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $155.46, by the corrective wave letter "c". You will notice a yellowish line on the top, now reversing (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are REVERSING. This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a SLEEPING alligator, and the alligator will feed in a down-trend when AWAKE. This is a negative indication and suggests lower prices for GBPJPY.
As for the wave structure: impulse leg 3 held at the lower trend-line, impulse leg 5 held at the lower trend-line, which was also Circle Fib 1.272. Corrective wave "b" held at Circle Fib 1.618, but the fall from corrective wave "c" BROKE the Circle Fib 1.618 level to the down-side. It also fell back into the down-trend line zone.
Based on the action in GBPJPY, I do not think the setup is completed for an upside reversal.
I would like to close with a quote about pounds: "In two decades I've lost a total of 789 pounds. I should be hanging from a charm bracelet." Erma Bombeck.
My advice to you, friends, is be aware that GBPJPY is a tough one to call. Wait and pick a good entry point. You may make less, but you won't lose 789 pounds.
I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. I hope it saves you money. May all of your trades go well. Don.
I discipline myself to use a TRADE-MAP approach. I have to remind myself to use "best practices" and not let emotions cloud my view. TRADE-MAP stands for:
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. This is my personal "TRADE-MAP" approach. Your technical tools certainly can differ.
The following information (my interpretation of the above chart) is for GBPJPY. Here are "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING relative to structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving LOWER (on the shorter time duration charts) and will most likely reverse on this daily chart. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is reversing and HEADING DOWN.
6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is heading lower. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is turning NEGATIVE (not quite red over green yet).
8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is WEAK, and may fail a ZERO LINE CROSS-OVER ATTEMPT, and if it returns to the negative direction, this is generally a powerful down signal. 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $155.46, by the corrective wave letter "c". You will notice a yellowish line on the top, now reversing (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are REVERSING. This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a SLEEPING alligator, and the alligator will feed in a down-trend when AWAKE. This is a negative indication and suggests lower prices for GBPJPY.
As for the wave structure: impulse leg 3 held at the lower trend-line, impulse leg 5 held at the lower trend-line, which was also Circle Fib 1.272. Corrective wave "b" held at Circle Fib 1.618, but the fall from corrective wave "c" BROKE the Circle Fib 1.618 level to the down-side. It also fell back into the down-trend line zone.
Based on the action in GBPJPY, I do not think the setup is completed for an upside reversal.
I would like to close with a quote about pounds: "In two decades I've lost a total of 789 pounds. I should be hanging from a charm bracelet." Erma Bombeck.
My advice to you, friends, is be aware that GBPJPY is a tough one to call. Wait and pick a good entry point. You may make less, but you won't lose 789 pounds.
I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. I hope it saves you money. May all of your trades go well. Don.
