US Dollar Index (DXY): Continued Weakness Forecast
I was reviewing a chart for DXY. An impulse wave was completed on April 12, 2016, and the trend continues lower. I then used UUP as a proxy for DXY, because these are the bullish US Dollar Powershares. The pain trade is to anticipate going long. I think DXY will continue lower.
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. This is Don's personal "TRADE-MAP" approach.
The following information (my interpretation of the above chart) is for UUP . Here are "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING relative to structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving LOWER and is BELOW the Ki jun-Sen baseline (very negative). 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING DOWN. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is heading lower.. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is WEAK, and it just FAILED A ZERO LINE CROSS-OVER ATTEMPT and returned to the negative direction (generally a powerful down signal). 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $24.40, by the large red arrow. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (lips), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are OPENED, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a FEEDING alligator, and the alligator will feed in a down-trend. This is a negative indication and suggests lower prices.
Here are more indications of DXY (UUP) weakness:
Prices FAILED at all Fibonacci circles. The price tried to rally at Circle Fib 1.618 (March 20th, from bottom of the trend line), but this failed. Prices followed the Circle Fib 1.618 for six days, then failed. Last Friday the Circle Fib 2.618 was breached, and this forecasts more weakness. As for the regression trend-line:
When I was in quality engineering we used statistical process control (SPC). We plotted readings on a control chart (similar to the regression trendline). Walter Shewhart (Bell Labs, 1925) taught the world that multiple readings on either the top or bottom of the control chart are NOT random. With non random readings you search for an assignable cause. (This is how I got my start in financial charting back in 1983). So, in a nutshell, I think DXY heads LOWER.
I would like to close today with two "dollar quotes".
The first quote is from Orrin Woodward: “Dollar bill: people spend their whole life seeking to earn it, but won't spend 10 minutes seeking to learn it.”
The second quote is from yours truly: “The value of your work is not in the dollar. It's in your word.”
I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. I hope it saves you money. May all of your trades go well. Don.
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. This is Don's personal "TRADE-MAP" approach.
The following information (my interpretation of the above chart) is for UUP . Here are "Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is FALLING relative to structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving LOWER and is BELOW the Ki jun-Sen baseline (very negative). 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING DOWN. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is heading lower.. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is WEAK, and it just FAILED A ZERO LINE CROSS-OVER ATTEMPT and returned to the negative direction (generally a powerful down signal). 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $24.40, by the large red arrow. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (lips), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are OPENED, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a FEEDING alligator, and the alligator will feed in a down-trend. This is a negative indication and suggests lower prices.
Here are more indications of DXY (UUP) weakness:
Prices FAILED at all Fibonacci circles. The price tried to rally at Circle Fib 1.618 (March 20th, from bottom of the trend line), but this failed. Prices followed the Circle Fib 1.618 for six days, then failed. Last Friday the Circle Fib 2.618 was breached, and this forecasts more weakness. As for the regression trend-line:
When I was in quality engineering we used statistical process control (SPC). We plotted readings on a control chart (similar to the regression trendline). Walter Shewhart (Bell Labs, 1925) taught the world that multiple readings on either the top or bottom of the control chart are NOT random. With non random readings you search for an assignable cause. (This is how I got my start in financial charting back in 1983). So, in a nutshell, I think DXY heads LOWER.
I would like to close today with two "dollar quotes".
The first quote is from Orrin Woodward: “Dollar bill: people spend their whole life seeking to earn it, but won't spend 10 minutes seeking to learn it.”
The second quote is from yours truly: “The value of your work is not in the dollar. It's in your word.”
I hope this has been helpful, entertaining, and informative. I hope it saves you money. May all of your trades go well. Don.
