Bearish trend line reached on GBPJPY! Looking for SHORT

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound / Japanese Yen
I can see two possible scenario here:
Scenario 1 (80%): the price will retest the bearish trend line , cause we are in strong bullish momentum (as you can see from the MacD ) then fall again through the second bearish trend line , to create a deep low. Keep on eye on the 200 MA line, and take you’re conclusions. :)
Scenario 2 (20%): the price will follow the bullish momentum, breaking the trend line , retest it and go up until 1.272 level of Fibonacci extension .
Trade active:
Two important candlestick pattern, that are indicating the beginning of the bearish trend
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