Ciba
Long

Take Profit or not? HOLD SHORT, consider LONG at 171.4

FX:GBPJPY   British Pound/Japanese Yen
105 0 0
That was a volatile PST early morning. I did not have a TTO set to take advantage of the plunge to 171.5 and reset SHORT for my initial target of 171.4. That's unfortunate, but it's pretty wild that GBPJPY             gets so much action with the USD NFP. A 80 pip plunge and then buy-in, almost set up a large hammer candle? (oh, I follow Danske, their TP STOP was taken at 172.1. No further update on their pending positions.)

I'd like to HOLD positions through the weekend. It saves me on analysis and the craziness from how spastic PST Sunday afternoons are. I also do not like establishing new positions on Fridays. I will consider LONG at 171.4 (or lower if the HOLD SHORT goes beyond) for the following reasons:

1) 171.4 is the Fib's 61.8% of last rise. 171.4 is the intersection a long running price level and a lot of my trend lines (both ST             and LT             ).
2) 200MA on the 1H is rising to meet near this area.
3) GBP poor data versus BOJ's incessant QE             - I'd currently take the QE             as they deal with their recent tax hike on consumers.
4) JPY's monetary statement on Monday, GBP's manufacturing data Monday evening PST, USD JOLTS Tuesday morning             . All good reasons to speculate LONG.
5) That seemingly huge hammer candle concerns me. Some huge buy-in LONGs was occurring. If it was a bank, they usually have deep STOPs.

HOLD OFF on TAKING PROFIT and HOLD SHORT through the weekend for the following reasons:

1) News of rockets flying between Syria and Turkey
2) Jitter on news that there is a greater than 50% chance that Russia will do something (maybe not this weekend, but still there's been speculation). NATO and Ukraine are prepping to hold joint exercises. Neutral nations such as Finland and Sweden are considering holding joint exercises with NATO. Former Pres             . Yanukovich saying he 'regrets' requesting Russia's intervention, while he's still in Russia. Evidence that he ordered the snipers on his own people. If Russia is going to do anything, they'll do it soon, as more people are gonna pile on the anti-annexation move. I despise lawlessness, but it's all speculation.
3) Semi-bad GBP data still recent.

All of these reasons to HOLD SHORT are not really strong. The main reason why I'm HOLDING SHORT is because I do not want to establish a new position on a Friday.

Holding SHORT TP STOP just above the latest 1H candle.
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