$GBP v $NZD - Structural Analysis: Limited Upside | #BOE #forex

FX:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
1233 25 31

Following a back to back Elliott Wave Contracting Triangle (with internals a-b-c-d-e             ), wherein point-e offered a significant point of departure, we are now looking at a potential range-bound play, as defined by the underbelly from the first a-c Line extension on the upside, and a double-bottom support extended forward from similar 10 AUG and 23 AUG rejection levels.

Note that the a 0.618-Fibonacci level corroborates the upside resistance narrative near 2.4278. Also, worth heeding is RSI relative to its own resistance trendline , which may or may not guide us in following the ensuing price action.

We will continue to follow this play with the expectation that price might be range-bound in the most immediate time horizon, with a net-bearish outlook for this pair.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster

LinkedIn: David Alcindor

TradingView: https://www.tradingview.com/u/4xForecaster/

Its being a long time that you update you model on GBPNZD. Here is my view David. Looking forward for you opinion/suggestion
05 OCT 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Chart Update: Target Hit

$GBPNZD followed forecast path, Hit target - Closing chart:

$GBP $NZD $USD #BOE #sterling #RBNZ #kiwi #forex

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 OCT 2015 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
JoeUrgo 4xForecaster
Excellent David, thanks for sharing.
+2 Reply
28 SEP 2015 - Chart Update:

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
is upside move remaining as per your forecast as price after some rally has moved down sharply
+2 Reply
Hello @kmp.msp - I do NOT believe that it will follow the original dashed pathway, as price has already broken below support.

However, here is what I am confident, in terms of anticipated price action (not based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model, though) - See chart and following comment:

First, price has retraced up to a significant 0.38.6 Fibonacci handle, it them pierce through the from from whence it came ...

Second, this means that a rallying to higher highs is LESS probable ...

Third: However, I have left that large arrow to indicate a likely rallying and reversal back to lower lows ...

And fourth and final, the projection remains in the vicinity of the original targeted zone, which represents a 1.414-Fib extension handle.

This is the best probable scenario I can anticipate at this time (again, probable but never certain).


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
here my view Sir
+2 Reply
@kmk.msp - Just as I am making an argument to not use my own blind-man cane (The Geo and Wolfe Wave), here you are coming up with a contrarian argument, in terms of tool use and direction. I love it.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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