The pair is in a downward parallel channel
forming lower highs and lower lows. As you can see there are lot of lines on this chart highlighting (in my opinion) key support and resistance
areas where price has tested. The most recent lower high tested the dotted resistance line, bounced off and then formed a bearish engulfing
after the spinning top
. It's also in line with a stochastic
crossover and should head down to challenge the first target area of support.
If price successfully reaches target 1 then we can expect either a bounce to the upside, perhaps with a test of resistance, or a clean pierce through solid support line toward the second target which in an important long term area of support. This analysis lines up on both the daily and 1 hour charts for further confirmation.
My only concern is that this pair is heading toward a realm of news events.*