FX:GBPNZD   British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
100 15 1
Good area to look for entry.
Too soon for me to go long. I'll be looking to go short again at 1.9266; if it fails, then at 1.9333.
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johan.gradin ForceFollower
thanks for the feedback, will you look for 1.89? i'm shorting it back w/ counter 3/7 pos. for asia o/n, could slip below 1.914, if so, i'll clear out my counter and add that to existing long position. realistically a base could take some days to build.. if not a majority of these moves are opex driven.
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johan.gradin johan.gradin
if it doesn't build a base and reverses on a pinbar and keeps rallying it could be that a majority of these moves we're opex driven for crosses and NZDs.
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ForceFollower johan.gradin
Sorry, I don't know what you mean. What 'opex' are you talking about?
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johan.gradin ForceFollower
options expiration (opex) this week, for the futures on the exchanges, it's quaterly expiration as well. it's naturally much smaller than the larger 24 hour fx market, but impact markets sometimes.
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ForceFollower johan.gradin
Ah, yes! Of course, it can have some influence on fx prices. But, honestly, I've never taken it into account.
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johan.gradin ForceFollower
in FX i don't usually pay no attention to it either. but since NZD is a bit different this year with almost only DM with higher rates getting priced in, corporations and traders are likely to take that into account for next quarter, since the market has priced in 0.75% more hikes from RBNZ.
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johan.gradin ForceFollower
but you're right, since it's more fundamental, marco, it's not so much of importance in a technical forum.
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ForceFollower johan.gradin
I believe price is going to hit 1.9065. That's where I will be looking to take profit (of course, actually a little bit higher to account for the spread). I can't tell you now, if it is going to go lower than that. So it may either stop and reverse or continue to those lows at 1.887. We'll see.
I've also revised my short entry levels to 1.9280 and 1.9330 accordingly.
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johan.gradin ForceFollower
cool, if it doesn't act well, i will have to cover and re-enter lower. but longer term i'm starting to build a position for it to move a lot higher :) Based on many factors the NZD is largerly overvalued, especially vs. illiquid crosses ;) (longer term though)
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