GBPNZD GBP/NZD A Short opportunity with clear risk reward
Wave 1 or A
I have labelled the move down from the 23rd June high of 2.3092 to the 25th June low of 2.26724 as a 5 wave impulse.
Factors helping validate the count
1) The base channel has been broken to show wave 3 price action
2) This channel has provided support for wave 4
3) Wave 4 is 38.2% of the whole impulse
4) Wave 5 is 38.2% of waves 1-3
Wave 2 or B
After looking at the internals of this wave I can see a double zig zag W X Y formation.
1) In wave W c = 1.27 of a
2) Wave Y = 1.27 Wave W
3) wave (2 or B) is approximately 88.6% retracement of wave (1 or A)
4) On the 15 minute time frame there is bearish RSI divergence between wave W and wave Y
The Trade
As I have labelled this 1/a and 2/b we are now working a wave 3 or wave C.
Within this wave C I can see an intermediate i and ii. Wave ii = 61.8% of wave i, wave c of ii = 1.618 of wave a
My trade is to go short on a break of 2.2992 (wave b of ii) with a stop above 2.3043 (top of wave ii) Risk 51 Pips
If we are now in wave c I would expect at least the end of wave a which is 2.2670 Target 1 322 pips
The next level I would look for is wave 1 or c = 100% of wave a which is at 2.2626 Target 2 366 Pips
After that I would look for wave 3 = 1.618 of wave 1 which is 2.2359 (break of the blue base line shown will add weight to the idea that we have a wave 1 and 2 and are in 3) Target 3 is 633 Pips
PS it is possible that the intermediate wave ii is actually a of ii. An alternative, more conservative entry is to enter on a break of 2.2975 (end of wave i) but have your stop at 2.3077 wend of wave 2 or B Risk 102 pips
I will use swing highs during the move down to adjust my stop to lock in profit.
I have labelled the move down from the 23rd June high of 2.3092 to the 25th June low of 2.26724 as a 5 wave impulse.
Factors helping validate the count
1) The base channel has been broken to show wave 3 price action
2) This channel has provided support for wave 4
3) Wave 4 is 38.2% of the whole impulse
4) Wave 5 is 38.2% of waves 1-3
Wave 2 or B
After looking at the internals of this wave I can see a double zig zag W X Y formation.
1) In wave W c = 1.27 of a
2) Wave Y = 1.27 Wave W
3) wave (2 or B) is approximately 88.6% retracement of wave (1 or A)
4) On the 15 minute time frame there is bearish RSI divergence between wave W and wave Y
The Trade
As I have labelled this 1/a and 2/b we are now working a wave 3 or wave C.
Within this wave C I can see an intermediate i and ii. Wave ii = 61.8% of wave i, wave c of ii = 1.618 of wave a
My trade is to go short on a break of 2.2992 (wave b of ii) with a stop above 2.3043 (top of wave ii) Risk 51 Pips
If we are now in wave c I would expect at least the end of wave a which is 2.2670 Target 1 322 pips
The next level I would look for is wave 1 or c = 100% of wave a which is at 2.2626 Target 2 366 Pips
After that I would look for wave 3 = 1.618 of wave 1 which is 2.2359 (break of the blue base line shown will add weight to the idea that we have a wave 1 and 2 and are in 3) Target 3 is 633 Pips
PS it is possible that the intermediate wave ii is actually a of ii. An alternative, more conservative entry is to enter on a break of 2.2975 (end of wave i) but have your stop at 2.3077 wend of wave 2 or B Risk 102 pips
I will use swing highs during the move down to adjust my stop to lock in profit.