On November 11th price action retested the 1.5500 handle, also a healthy previously tested and retest for several days from October 14th 2015 thru October 22, 2015. Since then (November 02) due to grater supply than demand and failure to close above the 1.5500 level, price action impulsively declined for 5 days in a row for a sell-off of 450+/- pips, finding buyers and profit taking just above 1.5000 handle (1.5026). 4 of the past 5 days have been with last Friday's daily candle closed as and indecision candle ( ) just below the zone (1.5240/50) , indicating potential area for sellers to get short.
There are several points of FAMILIAR confluence supporting bias continuation.
1. Role Reversal Level @ 1.5250 area
2. 50% Fib Retracement Level @ 1.5260
3. Fridays Indecision Candle w/ High Rejected By Daily 20EMA
4. Breakout of the prior swing slow, @ 1.5250 and a pull back to the level now displaying indecision.
I will be a seller between 1.5230/50 with a stop loss above 1.5270. Targeting 1.5120 then 1.5050 level. I will also cautiously anticipating sellers to gain confidence with a strong H1 or H4 close below 1.5175
NOTE: The Asian sessions are notorious for trapping retail traders with breakout trap and reverse false breaks, so I wouldn't be surprised if at some point during the Asian session, price action make and attempt to temporarily test the last Friday's highs and fail with aggressive short selling. Lookout for surprise short-term impulsive buying during the Asian session up to the 1.5300 handle for selling opportunities.