you're talking about retail. Sure sometimes it's good to use retail as counter-trend indicator but COT reports exclude retail and only list large speculators. Overlay a COT chart on a currency to see how the movements often foretell a move in the direction of large speculators. Of course it's possible there could be a melt up if stops around 1.63 are hit but less likely than likely. Hey, We'll see! Good luck.