FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
75 6 1
N
Not going to happen. Large speculators increasing short positions. Bank has no interest to raise rates for some time and economy has more struggles ahead. Dollar increasing in value too.
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Unfortunately I do not have access to the Banks' view :}
I suppose.
Large shorts - fuel for the longs.
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Anyone can read a COT report: http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/ Major bearish divergence means slowing momentum and lack of trend continuation. GBP already suffers from 4% account deficit due to strong currency.
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Now everybody is in shorts (http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-positions). For me it would be strange downward movement in such a situation.
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you're talking about retail. Sure sometimes it's good to use retail as counter-trend indicator but COT reports exclude retail and only list large speculators. Overlay a COT chart on a currency to see how the movements often foretell a move in the direction of large speculators. Of course it's possible there could be a melt up if stops around 1.63 are hit but less likely than likely. Hey, We'll see! Good luck.
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