Charles

Cable traders happy to be short as UK keeps circling the drain

Short
FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
219 views
0
Don't fight the trend. That simple. You could try to fade a bounce as profit taking is clearly taking place 1.48 - 1.49, but the trend in sterling is clearly down... across the board. The pair just broke to the downside (well, a few weeks back) out of a multi-year triangle. Now triangles, especially to the downside aren't the most reliable of patterns, imho, but lets assume that it performs at just 30% of it's usual measured move and we could get a target (from breakout price of 1.5735) of 1.4635. At 50% the target is 1.3869 and a full 100% move would target 1.2002. I think the 100% target would be pushing it, but 1.3869 (or even nearby 1.4635) seem fairly plausible. Look to fade any rallies would be my best guess here. Obviously, 1.5220/60 would be ideal, but barring that 1.5100/30 looks decent at the moment. The numbers might not jive exactly with the chart above as I was using my Reuters platform for the numbers, which are a bit different from these rates. You can see the original post I made on babypips.com in response to someone (http://forums.babypips.com/gbpusd/52056-...)

Comments

In early interbank dealing, cable pops to 1.5269 (Reuters dealing), now 1.5224/36...
Reply
Looks like it's about time to short cable as it's risen to that 1.5220/60 zone. Trendline resistance seen 1.5251 and offers 1.5245/50 stopped the rally at 1.5248 (Reuters). Depending on one's risk tolerance shorting here into 1.5250 or 1.5269 is the plan. If you roll with protective stops, stick one 1.5278.
Reply
Cable was bid up to 1.5120 paid on Reuters, but I think it's got more room to correct. I'd take a pass at fading here and keep sights set on 1.5220/60.
Reply