GBPUSD potentially still in free-fall in the short term.

Fundamentals :

With UK earnings for July coming in lower than expected at 2.4%, unemployment rate steady at 5.6%, consumer prices rising to 1.0% whereas retail sales to consumers quite sluggish at 0.1%, no improvement on the quarterly GDP estimate at 0.7%, Services and Manufacturing PMI's quite lower than expected at 55.6 and 51.5 respectively there is no indication so far for a Bank of England interest rate hike any time soon. Also UK M4 money supply of domestic sterling currency is quite high at 1.0% against previous -0.5%


Technical Analysis:

Our position still remains bearish in the short term for GBPUSD pair. We view the price at around 1.58136 on the 25th of August 2015 as a short term top of the correction that began on the 9th of July 2015 swing low B as shown. With psychological support zone of 1.52585/1.52362 taken out by price, we believe GBPUSD is briefly oversold. Current price action is viewed as possible wave i of 3 and consolidation could occur to within 1.53865 area after which a continuation of the downtrend to 1.48868/1.48111 zone first.

Break of 1.48868/1.48111 should target 1.45626 next.


Furthermore, we require a break of the 1.54923/1.55090 psychological resistance area to signal a possible change of the current picture upon which our view will be neutral first. Further break of 1.58136 is needed to turn the short term outlook bullish again.