EverythingForex

FULL ANALYSIS: GBPUSD: Fell Much More Than Predicted! Now What?

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Three months ago, I published this post:

In that post, here is what I had to say:
"On this DAILY chart , what I am seeing is that there should be a nice drop coming soon. Why do I say this? My wave count, if correct, is showing that the next move should be a wave 3 of 3 coming. Seeing that this pair has been swinging in large waves lately, the next swing if keeping with this pattern of swinging, should see a large wave down. Combine that with it possibly being a wave 3 of 3 down, and you can see why I am saying that there could be a nice sharp drop forthcoming! "

Well, 3 months later, here we are. That LARGE DROP occurred just as I had predicted. Sure, there was much drama along the way and even I wavered and waffled on this drop a few times but overall, I kept to this bearish move. But a surprising thing was that it actually fell A LOT more than i thought it would! But, such is the nature of wave 3 of 3's! Very strong moves! And that is what we got!

So now that we got that, let's see if this wave (iii) is yet done or are we to expect even more dropping to come?

WAVE COUNT
Looking closely at this move down which I've labeled as a wave (iii) of (III), breaking down the subwaves reveals that we could be coming in to the end of the wave (iii) of (III) and looking at the start of a wave (iv) of (III) retracement occurring at a MAJOR SR Structure zone. There may still be a small push down once more to compete the wave (5) of v of (iii) before we see the retracement begin.

PATTERNS
As mentioned in the DAILY chart, there was a COMPLETED Crab in which prices are now in its' PRZ. There is also a solid trading channel that this wave v of (iii) has been declining in.

Click on each chart below for more analysis:

MONTHLY CHART - Right Shoulder Of H&S Pattern Almost Complete...But Not Yet!

WEEKLY CHART - Still Looking At More Downside
DAILY CHART - 5-Wave Move Down Still Not Complete


WHAT TO LOOK FOR
It's difficult at best to predict the ending of any impulse wave. Let alone a strong one like this one1 But end it must. And where it is now is as good a place as any. But what I want to see is for prices to break out of that solid trading channel before looking to take a trade. I would also look for prices to drop just a little bit more below the current lows and create a small spike below the support structure without a solid 2 bar close below it to possibly signal that a low may be in.

MY TRADE PLAN
I will be looking to be a BUYER if I see that spike below the support and a move back up immediately. And then see prices break the trading channel.

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