EverythingForex

FULL ANALYSIS: GBPUSD: Fell Much More Than Predicted! Now What?

FX:GBPUSD   BRITISH POUND / U.S. DOLLAR
1917 14 34
Three months ago, I published this post:

In that post, here is what I had to say:
"On this DAILY chart , what I am seeing is that there should be a nice drop coming soon. Why do I say this? My wave count, if correct, is showing that the next move should be a wave 3 of 3 coming. Seeing that this pair has been swinging in large waves lately, the next swing if keeping with this pattern of swinging, should see a large wave down. Combine that with it possibly being a wave 3 of 3 down, and you can see why I am saying that there could be a nice sharp drop forthcoming! "

Well, 3 months later, here we are. That LARGE DROP occurred just as I had predicted. Sure, there was much drama along the way and even I wavered and waffled on this drop a few times but overall, I kept to this bearish move. But a surprising thing was that it actually fell A LOT more than i thought it would! But, such is the nature of wave 3 of 3's! Very strong moves! And that is what we got!

So now that we got that, let's see if this wave ( iii             ) is yet done or are we to expect even more dropping to come?

WAVE COUNT
Looking closely at this move down which I've labeled as a wave ( iii             ) of ( III             ), breaking down the subwaves reveals that we could be coming in to the end of the wave ( iii             ) of ( III             ) and looking at the start of a wave (iv) of ( III             ) retracement occurring at a MAJOR SR Structure zone. There may still be a small push down once more to compete the wave (5) of v of ( iii             ) before we see the retracement begin.

PATTERNS
As mentioned in the DAILY chart , there was a COMPLETED Crab in which prices are now in its' PRZ. There is also a solid trading channel that this wave v of ( iii             ) has been declining in.

Click on each chart below for more analysis:

MONTHLY CHART - Right Shoulder Of H&S Pattern Almost Complete...But Not Yet!

WEEKLY CHART - Still Looking At More Downside
DAILY CHART - 5-Wave             Move Down Still Not Complete


WHAT TO LOOK FOR
It's difficult at best to predict the ending of any impulse wave. Let alone a strong one like this one1 But end it must. And where it is now is as good a place as any. But what I want to see is for prices to break out of that solid trading channel before looking to take a trade. I would also look for prices to drop just a little bit more below the current lows and create a small spike below the support structure without a solid 2 bar close below it to possibly signal that a low may be in.

MY TRADE PLAN
I will be looking to be a BUYER if I see that spike below the support and a move back up immediately. And then see prices break the trading channel.
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Thanks!
From here to long?
Reply
hi andrew, thanks for this. may i ask at which timeframe are you looking for that failure of a solid 2 bar close?
Reply
4HR TF
Reply
Jaegher EverythingForex
sorry for sounding very noob but what does TF mean?
Reply
TF = Time Frame as in 4HR TF means 4 Hour Time Frame.
Reply
Jaegher EverythingForex
thank you and more power!
Reply
Though I may not post here quite as often like before, I do continue to post much more to my own Facebook group (where I can BAN any TROLLS!). So if you would like to continue to see more of my posts as well as some of my trading tips, join my Facebook group at: http://www.facebook.com/efxselect

If you desire to receive ALL my analysis on pairs I trade and cover as well as REAL-TIME trade signals, consider joining my private group and my members. You'll get REAL-TIME trade signals and analysis as the trade happens and discussions those trades live. Interested? Go to: efxselect.com for more info.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.
+1 Reply
manoj15 EverythingForex
Hi Andrew, is there more possibility to go down
Reply
Yes, that is what I see. More downside to come but after a retracement.
+1 Reply
manoj15 EverythingForex
will u post @ what level we should short
Reply
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