FULL ANALYSIS: GBPUSD: Fell Much More Than Predicted! Now What?

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
1917 14 34
Three months ago, I published this post:

In that post, here is what I had to say:
"On this DAILY chart , what I am seeing is that there should be a nice drop coming soon. Why do I say this? My wave count, if correct, is showing that the next move should be a wave 3 of 3 coming. Seeing that this pair has been swinging in large waves lately, the next swing if keeping with this pattern of swinging, should see a large wave down. Combine that with it possibly being a wave 3 of 3 down, and you can see why I am saying that there could be a nice sharp drop forthcoming! "

Well, 3 months later, here we are. That LARGE DROP occurred just as I had predicted. Sure, there was much drama along the way and even I wavered and waffled on this drop a few times but overall, I kept to this bearish move. But a surprising thing was that it actually fell A LOT more than i thought it would! But, such is the nature of wave 3 of 3's! Very strong moves! And that is what we got!

So now that we got that, let's see if this wave ( iii             ) is yet done or are we to expect even more dropping to come?

Looking closely at this move down which I've labeled as a wave ( iii             ) of ( III             ), breaking down the subwaves reveals that we could be coming in to the end of the wave ( iii             ) of ( III             ) and looking at the start of a wave (iv) of ( III             ) retracement occurring at a MAJOR SR Structure zone. There may still be a small push down once more to compete the wave (5) of v of ( iii             ) before we see the retracement begin.

As mentioned in the DAILY chart , there was a COMPLETED Crab in which prices are now in its' PRZ. There is also a solid trading channel that this wave v of ( iii             ) has been declining in.

Click on each chart below for more analysis:

MONTHLY CHART - Right Shoulder Of H&S Pattern Almost Complete...But Not Yet!

WEEKLY CHART - Still Looking At More Downside
DAILY CHART - 5-Wave             Move Down Still Not Complete

It's difficult at best to predict the ending of any impulse wave. Let alone a strong one like this one1 But end it must. And where it is now is as good a place as any. But what I want to see is for prices to break out of that solid trading channel before looking to take a trade. I would also look for prices to drop just a little bit more below the current lows and create a small spike below the support structure without a solid 2 bar close below it to possibly signal that a low may be in.

I will be looking to be a BUYER if I see that spike below the support and a move back up immediately. And then see prices break the trading channel.
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From here to long?
hi andrew, thanks for this. may i ask at which timeframe are you looking for that failure of a solid 2 bar close?
Jaegher EverythingForex
sorry for sounding very noob but what does TF mean?
TF = Time Frame as in 4HR TF means 4 Hour Time Frame.
Jaegher EverythingForex
thank you and more power!
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+1 Reply
manoj15 EverythingForex
Hi Andrew, is there more possibility to go down
Yes, that is what I see. More downside to come but after a retracement.
+1 Reply
manoj15 EverythingForex
will u post @ what level we should short
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