Johnman
Short

The fundamental panorama of the GBPUSD pair

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
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By looking at recent data and press releases we can reach the conclusion the market tends to shrug off bad US data (also downplayed by the Fed as of late) and is very sensitive to bad inflation data from the UK.

By looking at the calendar for the next days we spot an opportunity for a short. There should be no reason for price to go above the resistance a zone around 1.52, and it would be a good place to place our short, provided we continue seeing a decline in quality of UK inflation-related data.

Alternatively, a less risky move would be to wait for worse than expected US unemployment claims, which would probably cause a small and temporary rally which, as long as UK data remains bad, would give us a good price to sell at.

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Fundamentals are a very complex subject. I'd appreciate any comments regarding this analysis.


Correlation is something I did not take into account at first. If this last move from 1.50759 to 1.51523 is due to the EUR, then it's almost safe to say it will not affect the original outlook. It could also be an USD correction or the CHF causing trouble.
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