This pair has baffled me on much more than one occasion. And recently is no different. In my last post on this pair, I was WAY OFF again and luckily, I did not take any trade off my analysis. But that is now neither here nor there as far as relevance to what is happening now is it? Only thing that matters is what's happening in the present time.
So here is what I see happening. Given that I've not had a great track record on this pair as of late, take it for what it's worth.
Prices are at the moment finishing up a contracting triangle wave (iv) within a large descending diagonal (blue TL's). This wave (iv) is also the D leg of that diagonal. Since I'm seeing this as a D leg, then there is to be an E leg back down to come to finish that descending diagonal. That E leg should see prices descend down to meet the bottom TL of the diagonal where it will complete the wave (v) of the larger wave C of (B) corrective wave (see the below for more detail on the larger waves).
There is a POTENTIAL that has still not been filled yet. This small move up into the upper TL of that larger descending diagonal should fill that and mark the completion of the contracting triangle wave (iv). If and when prices decline in the E leg and the wave (v), then when prices meet the lower TL, it will complete a POTENTIAL and that should mark the end of the E leg and the wave (v) and could mark the beginning of the MAJOR WAVE (C) corrective wave up.
DAILY CHART - Unfinished Diagonal
This diagonal that I have been charting for months now is STILL not yet done. By my wave count, there is one more leg down to go before we will get to see the HUGE wave (C) up that I have been waiting to see for MONTHS now. There is also that POTENTIAL Bat that is waiting below.
MY TRADE PLAN
I will wait for prices to finish the wave (iv) contracting triangle and then wait for a SELL Setup. Then I'll sell into the E leg down. But I will be watching for a SELL SETUP before I do sell because who knows? It may continue on up from there instead making my wave count wrong. So it's important to watch the price action for confirmation of a sell before jumping in.
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