We've seen 3 cycles UP on the GU and a stop run to the highs during NY yesterday. Expecting a reversal down to 1.5610/1.5600 region. Entered short at 1.5814, with 30 pips sl & 210 pips tp. Risk/Reward is 1:7, so it's worth waiting and see if this trade will complete during the next 3-5 days.
Well, looks like we've seen extended push up. I took the 30 pips loss at 1.5844. Normally, I would always enter a trade after 3 completed cycles on either direction and a stop run, on the 1hr chart, resp to the H/L of the last cycle. If it wans't for the stop run, I was not gonna have my bias for a short and would have waited to see what direction the market will go after the consolidation has finished(break the range 1.5830-1.5773 in any direction with a 1h bar candle closing outside the range). Then I would wait for a pull back and trade from there on. Generally, It's not a secter that banks move the market in 3 cycles. It's been like that for ages (long before me, you or other readers were born). I know extended pushes happen every once in a while but that's life :). I believe in my strategy and with the R/R I'm using it's ok for the long run. We can see another 2 cycles up to have a second consecutive set of 3 cycles completed in the coming 2-3 days but You should be cautious with placing a long after this extended push up as price may shift on monday morning and go south for the whole next week. What bothers me is the fact that they didn't take any stops below 1.5773 before moving the marker up. What I'm expecting after 3 cycles are completed is either a reversal (stop run and shifting the price), or at least 1 push in the opposite direction of the last 3 cycles, or if the price ranges then a confirmation on direction plus taking the stops of the other end of the range, before continuing the move with another 3 cycles. Good luck with your trading and would love to hear if you have placed your trade and on what bias :)