At the time of writing, the pair traded around 1.3135.
Daily chart – Symmetrical triangle breakout, but invalidation only below 1.3056
- Pair’s failure to hold/take out above 1.3363 (50% of 2007 high-2009 low-2014 high) earlier this week and a drop from the high of 1.3345 to 1.3111 is demoralizing for the bulls, but still invalidation is seen only in case of a daily closing below 1.3056, in which case the post Brexit vote low of 1.2789 stands exposed.
- A daily closing below 1.3074 would also indicate break from symmetrical triangle, although bears would need a break below 1.3056 levels.
- As long as 1.3056 holds, the probability of a move back to 1.3363-1.35 remains intact.
- Note: in case we close below 1.3174 today, then the spot may find itself stuck in the range of 1.3315 (23.6% of 1.5019-1.2789) - 1.3056 levels for the next few days.