A snowball rolling uphill.

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
142 10 0
A good friend of mine says: Don't force the force.
That' s what I'm going to do now.
At last the first touch with the Pitchfork tooth remaind the top. I took the profit.
Now we're talking. I hope you meant me. :-) Up, of course, at least to 1.6375. That's where the ceiling parallel will exert its resistance.
motleifaul ForceFollower
You found it out. Your motto is a really good one. It is of course more ften useful to go with the trend than to try to fish the bottom or the top. Nevertheless, very often it looks suducing to trade against the trend especially when the chart has reached pivot points. But in this case there is no such point in view. Yes I see the line at 1,6365(sorry for the 10 bp difference) as well but I can imagine even a larger rise up. Let's look. Thank's for your reply.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Sure, it can go even higher. My next target would be 1.6431. That would be on top of the world, but it's possible, if the pound's strength continues and the US dollar weakens more or gets hit by some unexpected news.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Almost hit to the tick: 1.6373, I was expecting 2 pips more, so my target hasn't been hit. It doesn't pay to be a perfectionist. Now, i think the pound might like to relax a bit (not for good yet, but for a short period of time), it's been strong for so long, let the franc be the leader of the forex for some time...

By the way, I have noticed, we've got the same number of published charts and roughly the same number of followers via this platform...
motleifaul ForceFollower
You look to the 4-h-periodes more often than I. That`s why you paid more attention to the 1,6373 target than I did. At this pair I look more optimistic because we broke through the 1.6256 resistance which makes a move ap to the next higher parallell more likely.
I appreciate your reluctance and critical approach to your own opinion. And we have a similiar view on the markets. This makes it easier to communicate with you than with other members because your thoughts are more compatible to my own ideas and vice versa as well I assume.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Yes, which is extraordinary, given the different tools and different time frames we use. :-) What surprises me about you is that as a user of the Donchian Channel I'd expect you to be a devote trend follower, whereas I often found you trying to fight the trend. Perhaps it was some self-sabotage, which also happens to me, or I simply misunderstood your chart study... Anyway, any time you go long the strong currency and go short the weak one, you're in my camp. :-)
motleifaul ForceFollower
Well, you make me thinking about my market approach.
So I made a little analysis of my past forex deals. I realized that I could perhaps make more out of the Donchian Channel. But I don't treat it as the Evangelium. All the indicators are good for me only to make clear where we are and what might come next. It became modern now to develope systems, backtest them and then follow them with discipline. My experience says that on the long run this results in loss. Markets change. I also have a tendency to follow "signals" from time to time. But I try to fight this tendency when I realize it. I try to be chaotic like the market but to detect a structure from time to time. This may be a wave, a barrier or a stream or in the best case a broken dam.
The discussion with you helps me not to stick to my view but to rethink the possibilities.
This is like the "snowball chart" looks lik now:
You see that this confirms my idea and the trend :-)
By the way: My short analysis showed me that the probability of a loss was even higher whe I followed the trend. :-) But well, this doesn't say anything. It only says something about myself. It is easier for me to decide to make a deal against the trend than to follow it. Nevertheless the number of trades with the trend exceeds those against it. And also therefor it has no meaning that there is a higher percentage of loss deals among them.
Well, this was a lot of philosophy. Let's better work. Your comments are always appreciated.
motleifaul motleifaul
Better open the chart in a new Tab as they cut it to fit it into the chat.
ForceFollower motleifaul
Thank you. Your comments are also welcome. :-) I wish I had more time to address your problem, (but my wife wants me to help her, as we're expecting guests tomorrow night).

Anyway, you don't have to be a genius to think you can fight the trend. It's just so easy. Following the trend is much harder, as you usually have no good pivot near to hide your stop loss behind and your target is somewhere above the structure. And most often it's unbelievable it could go even higher, but it does! So I have no doubt that it is the most consistent way of making profits. Sure, there comes a time when the trend ends and unless you see it coming, you're going to be stopped out.

Your method and your time frame are OK, as long as you're happy with it. Take notes in your trading diary, learn from your every loss and soon you'll know, what fits you.

Trading with the trends works best, when you're picky about the markets. I leave the most choppy markets to other traders. You won't find me there - I'll be stalking a good entry just below one of the strongest up trends (or above the down trends) out there in FX.

Anyway, I hope you had a good week, and have a nice weekend.
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