That' s what I'm going to do now.
By the way, I have noticed, we've got the same number of published charts and roughly the same number of followers via this platform...
I appreciate your reluctance and critical approach to your own opinion. And we have a similiar view on the markets. This makes it easier to communicate with you than with other members because your thoughts are more compatible to my own ideas and vice versa as well I assume.
So I made a little analysis of my past forex deals. I realized that I could perhaps make more out of the Donchian Channel. But I don't treat it as the Evangelium. All the indicators are good for me only to make clear where we are and what might come next. It became modern now to develope systems, backtest them and then follow them with discipline. My experience says that on the long run this results in loss. Markets change. I also have a tendency to follow "signals" from time to time. But I try to fight this tendency when I realize it. I try to be chaotic like the market but to detect a structure from time to time. This may be a wave, a barrier or a stream or in the best case a broken dam.
The discussion with you helps me not to stick to my view but to rethink the possibilities.
This is like the "snowball chart" looks lik now:
You see that this confirms my idea and the trend :-)
By the way: My short analysis showed me that the probability of a loss was even higher whe I followed the trend. :-) But well, this doesn't say anything. It only says something about myself. It is easier for me to decide to make a deal against the trend than to follow it. Nevertheless the number of trades with the trend exceeds those against it. And also therefor it has no meaning that there is a higher percentage of loss deals among them.
Well, this was a lot of philosophy. Let's better work. Your comments are always appreciated.
Anyway, you don't have to be a genius to think you can fight the trend. It's just so easy. Following the trend is much harder, as you usually have no good pivot near to hide your stop loss behind and your target is somewhere above the structure. And most often it's unbelievable it could go even higher, but it does! So I have no doubt that it is the most consistent way of making profits. Sure, there comes a time when the trend ends and unless you see it coming, you're going to be stopped out.
Your method and your time frame are OK, as long as you're happy with it. Take notes in your trading diary, learn from your every loss and soon you'll know, what fits you.
Trading with the trends works best, when you're picky about the markets. I leave the most choppy markets to other traders. You won't find me there - I'll be stalking a good entry just below one of the strongest up trends (or above the down trends) out there in FX.
Anyway, I hope you had a good week, and have a nice weekend.