GBPUSD
On the technical view:
1.25 strong resistance zone, coupled with 50SMA.
prices are fluctuating below 50SMA, which we consider it bearish
Technical indicators (momentum/RSI/Bollinger band) , has neutral readings, which means EA Bots would not be speculating at this moment, this would be an indecisive zone for technical traders.
These technical reading does hint a significant movement that breaks out of consolidation pattern is nearby.
On the weekly price action, more than 200pips down, indicates bearish movement.
Price level analysis, prices should be at 1.265 range given the strength of the dollar, However EU-UK talks has began to surface on the news, taking note that EU expect an extension by june, which UK has consistently and stubbornly decline, Our view is that this would put pressure on bullish traders as time is running out, in the next 2 months if the response was 'NO' extension , the uncertainty level would drive the pound to 1.218 level in time to come , with the impact of extended lockdown in the UK.
Continual raise in infected and death rate is a major issue, thou is slowly down, but this cannot be viewed similarly to price analysis, as long as there are newly infected patients, and deaths relating to covid19, the impact would be felt economically.
Our view for the longer term is that there would be some kind of deal between these nations eventually, as both countries are suffering the impact of covid19, logically speaking when 2 poor men negotiate business, the deal is easily done compared to 2 rich and arrogant fellows. Taking note that the PM has recovered from near death experiences, it might change his behavior somehow.
With higher than GDP debt levels , the pound eventually has to soar, to repay interest and debt repayments.