SamKent
Short

Our desired shorting area

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound/U.S. Dollar
321 3 4
The GBP/USD             is rallying, but the overall structure and overall trend of the market is still very bearish . With that in mind, looking at the 4H chart, our desired point of entry will be at a confluence between the long held descending trend-line, the 38.2% of the latest bear wave; the support and resistance+psychological factor 1.5800 level. Finally, we'd like to see RSI at around the 65 handle. If things materialize in this fashion, we're with-the-trend sellers, and we believe the pair will indeed break the recent consolidation zone.
I agree in the overall view of GBPUSD but I would like to point out this trend seems to be on its possible death-bed.

Look at this chart:
snapshot


Notice how the trend has gone from the upper-range to the lower-range in various occasions (very mature trend). Every time it touches the upper-band, it is followed with a touch on the lower-band.

This last touch on the upper-band, however, was cut short from reaching the lower-band, signaling that the bulls are starting to take control of the trend in general.

Now look at this updated chart:
snapshot


As you can see, the price went deep into the upper band and retraced to the mid-trend line before a sharp rebound to the upper band (notice this last daily candle is still 8hrs before closing).

This means that twice the trend is edging on the upper-band without a touch on the lower-band. When this occurs what usually follows is an overall trend-change.

I am still hopeful this will go down but, realistically, I would stay away from shorts at the current situation.
+1 Reply
SamKent TheNickD
Point well taken, thank you sir for the insightful analysis :)
Reply
I just wanted to point out this as well, i think this trend line is better suited, but yours could be used as an outer trendline.
snapshot
+1 Reply
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