GBP - Try again to fix the hedge

No particular plan right now, Just observe the channel and see what breaks.

-If we have a strong run out and up, the hedge buy target becomes a focus, and then match sell from that level.

-If we have a strong run out down, the hedge sell, or breakeven(depending where it break) will be the focus, then match buy from that level.

No targets as of right now, just alerts and observations. Pretty sure I just got suckered by the supply zone break, but, this is where it is now lol. Should've taken the 23 pip loss on the sells yesterday when I had the chance, but tried to hold out for the plan, and didn't think much about flexing at the time from all the stop running and just general chaos in the movements.

This time, I stay flexible!

Neutral, though still feel short is probably the right way, just trying to manage a breakdown of the channel and trade to the goal of getting out of these positions at this point.

Comment:

setting buy hedge to close at a stop area 1.2295, this looks like a true right shoulder in a head and shoulders pattern

Comment:

Triangle formation in the lower time frames. A topside breakout clears the buys and then looking for the price to drop from here

Trade active:

Buy cut for a 20 pip loss

1.231 buy hedge

Comment:

I know it's coming... Where does it start? Looks like it's ready at any moment though

Comment:

Looking at the overall scale, I would think 1.206 or near would be a great target, we play out I'll try to let it ride, but I've been on this one way then the other for a minute, so if it doesn't work out, I'll lock down and look at something else 🐵

Comment:

1.18 eventually, that's what everything points to, but it may be a fight to get there 🙈

Comment:

Still not a fan of "fundamentals" but if USD advanced against JPY, should the GBP fall, as it can buy less USD? I'll have to look into that one, but if that's right, the move should start out of the open tomorrow

Comment:

Even ignoring fundamentals, I'm already thinking that will be the case, we dwindle down around this area, institutional time they take the upper hand, and when retail is let back in, it just goes downhill from there

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My issue with fundamentals:
1. News says one thing but price does the opposite
2. Yes one currency got stronger, but the one you're trading, also got stronger, faster.
3. Price will do what it wants to do, news will just make that happen much faster, the boundaries and patterns still get respected anyway

Comment:

& 4. This is a big one: things are already priced in by the time we figure it out, because the institutional traders digest this stuff before we do daily

Comment:

More news all bullishness, but I'm not so sure. I think this is just one massive buy trap. Nothing but bait patterns for the last 12 hours, the "head" of this head and shoulders is a head and shoulders too. Downward channel still, and we have a ways to break it on the top (4hr), and for a big move we need a lot of people on the wrong side.... I say trap 🪤

Comment:

One other thing about just the way we got here in general, almost 90% of the time, once we reach where it's going, it's straight down (high probability, extremely common outcome)

Trade closed: stop reached:

I can't say I know what's driving this, it's the first time I've seen one just go like this for so long. Hedged out again, I'm just going to let it go for a bit and look at something else while this finishes, then come back and look where it ended to try and figure out just what happened here 🤷🏻‍♂️

Comment:

Not even going to worry about anything with it for a bit, the swap is only .04 a day so whatever, let it move about 140 pips one way or the other first and then look at it fresh

Trade active:

Buy limit closed near the top where the trend is getting rejection finally. 57.6 pips gained. Trade is net positive 114 pips now, but still going...... New Hedge limit set above the level at 1.23514

Comment:

1.2364 was the closing price of the buy hedge

Comment:

Lot of position exchanging going on here, thinking it may be time for it to end this long climb and start hunting into lower levels again

Comment:

Major changeover, All the ones holding long are leaving and more selling pressure coming in. Price is not moving much because it's the buyers becoming sellers, position flipping, so the money is still in the market, just on the other side now

Comment:

Stop hunting, a return to the 1.231 level will confirm

Comment:

May be hunting for just beyond 1.233, the most obvious collection of stops

Comment:

Adding a match sell (4 positions) at 1.2327, additional hedging at 1.2348

Comment:

1 minute chart confirmed the stop point/rejection

Comment:

Both buy targets set to 1.226, which chould give a nice net gain on close, and finally end this trade

Trade closed: stop reached:

Hedged again. This one is making me a little mad so I'm not looking at it anymore this week

Comment:

Closed a sell at break even, looking to let one of the buys also close break even and take the position size in half

Trade closed: stop reached:

Hedged and just made it even worse :/

Trade closed manually:

Flatten completely, as any further attempt at trying to fix this one will destroy the account with too muck risk, and with all of the swap fees day to day, this position will start to ramp up in further costs the longer it goes, so all around bad situation.

This is the dark side of trading, and sometimes it will consume a trader, along with the account, but this time, I'm stopping it.

Net loss on account (too many trades to individualize) of about 692 pips. There were 16 positions in this, it should have stopped 8 positions in.

There were some gains along the trade, so overall the account is now back to health, at more than what I had to begin last week, so I feel ok with this decision, as I can continue to trade again. Back to the system and follow the rules, this should not happen again