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Based on some recent polling surprises, the GBP is looking really spooked into the actual Brexit decision. From a volatility perspective, this has picked up quite a bit and has likely shaken most swing traders out of any long GBP themes. Right now, we believe 1.4150 is likely to be tested again before breaking above 1.4320-1.4350. Trading client capital or serious money on this theme is a risk - especially holding anything over the weekend - but for personal accounts this does create some opportunity. We have personally taken out some put options on the GBP as we expect there to be a gap down event on the pair over the weekend and prices to continue to fall into the NY trading session on Monday. However, we would not be surprised if the opposite also happened and we rocket back to the upside on the smallest blip that the polls have yet again shifted in the opposing direction.
Based on some recent polling surprises, the GBP is looking really spooked into the actual Brexit decision. From a volatility perspective, this has picked up quite a bit and has likely shaken most swing traders out of any long GBP themes. Right now, we believe 1.4150 is likely to be tested again before breaking above 1.4320-1.4350. Trading client capital or serious money on this theme is a risk - especially holding anything over the weekend - but for personal accounts this does create some opportunity. We have personally taken out some put options on the GBP as we expect there to be a gap down event on the pair over the weekend and prices to continue to fall into the NY trading session on Monday. However, we would not be surprised if the opposite also happened and we rocket back to the upside on the smallest blip that the polls have yet again shifted in the opposing direction.